Weak US Dollar

AUD at 108
Very strong Vs USD
It was in 1982 that it was at 108 last.

CHF
At an all time high VS USD
This chart goes back to 1971
We have never seen anything like this

JPY
At 81 now
This chart goes back to 1971
1995 was the only only time JPY was below 80
We are seeing multi decade lows for the USD as of now


But
Sentiment is one sided
USD is most hated asset
Rally since Mar 09 is huge - even in FX terms


Consensus will say and is saying - dollar will collapse
This would be just trend following then


If dollar does bottom now and begin the up move - this would be the biggest and greatest contrarian signal and trade of all time


USD spike would be a shock
Markets are ALL IN Vs the USD


This would call for a repeat of 2008 but on a much larger scale


Some of the events that can upset the party are -


1 - European debt issues
2 - China hard landing
3 - Japan debt shock
4 - EM crash
5 - Oil shock
6 - Across the board Commodity crash


Let us wait and watch.