Tuesday 31 May 2011

Container Lines to Add Record Capacity in 2013

 
By Kyunghee Park

     May 31 (Bloomberg) -- Container lines plan to add a record amount of capacity in 2013, outpacing growth in demand for shipping services, which may drive maritime-transport rates lower, according to NH Investment & Securities Co.

     The CHART OF THE DAY shows that the capacity of the global container-shipping fleet may increase by a net 1.9 million boxes in 2013 if all options and letters of intent for new vessels are exercised, according to Alphaliner. That would expand the fleet by 11 percent, the fastest annual increase in five years, according to the Paris-based maritime data provider.

     “We may have to start worrying about overcapacity again,”

said Jee Heon Seok, an NH Investment analyst in Seoul.

“Shipping lines have rushed to make orders before ship prices increase, and they seem to have forgotten about the consequences they could face when the vessels are delivered.”

     A.P. Moeller-Maersk A/S will contribute to the capacity jump in 2013 as it will begin receiving 10 18,000-container ships that will be among the largest afloat. In total, maritime- transport lines have placed $18.8 billion of orders for container vessels since January 2010, according to Alphaliner.

Orders surged as shipbuilders cut prices following a slump that began in 2008 with the global recession.

     Shipyards’ firm orders for 2013 deliveries totaled 1.59 million boxes as of May 25, according to Alphaliner. A ship that can carry 8,800 containers was worth $93 million at the end of April, compared with $137 million for an 8,100-box ship at the end of June 2008, according to data from shipbroker Clarkson Plc.

     Taipei-based Evergreen Group this month ordered 10 8,000- container vessels from Taiwanese shipbuilder CSBC Corp., with deliveries to begin in the third quarter of 2013 or earlier.

Neptune Orient Lines Ltd. is due to receive 10 vessels that year. Lessor Seaspan Corp. is in talks with builders in South Korea and China on orders for as many as 30 vessels, some of which may be handed over in 2013, according to Alphaliner.

Greek Day of Reckoning Looms in Ponzi Europe


By Mario I. Blejer

     May 31 (Bloomberg) -- One of the undeniable features of the European debt crisis is the tendency to obscure, verbally and politically, the real issues at play. Euphemisms, statistical gimmicks, meaningless institutional squabbling, undecipherable acronyms, and plain double talk proliferate as part of the debate.

     In my experience as central-bank governor in Argentina during the worst financial crisis in our history, at the beginning of this century, I learned how useful it is to cut through the fog in order to rebuild credibility and to allow a more lucid evaluation of the outlook. While there are few similarities between Greece’s present debt situation and Argentina’s in 2002, it is possible to reduce the recent talk of a default to four basic issues and make some predictions.

     The nature of the debt problem in peripheral Europe is structural. Since it doesn’t reflect a temporary liquidity squeeze, the approach adopted so far can’t resolve it. The strategy in progress has been to pile new debt upon the existing stock. New loans are used to pay old debt, in addition to financing remaining fiscal gaps. This is why the Ponzi scheme analogy is appropriate. And while the pyramid is growing, the share of peripheral debt held by state-owned institutions also keeps getting bigger. This means that when it all finally collapses, it is the taxpayers of Europe, and the world, that will bear the full cost.



                         Growing Pyramid



     The pyramid may continue to grow for a while, particularly if the cement used is public funds. But it is an unstable construction because European bailouts are becoming politically questionable and because throwing International Monetary Fund money into the Ponzi scheme is raising objections. This strategy is only making the situation worse.

     The IMF has performed badly in this crisis. Its programs are bound to fail because their design is profoundly flawed.

They contain two basic blunders. First, they have wrongly assumed that peripheral countries could return to the voluntary capital market next year. Today we know that Greece’s ability to borrow 30 billion euros ($43 billion) in 2012 is nothing but a fantasy. The programs, therefore, remain unfinanced. And the situation promises to be even more difficult in 2013 if the perverse permanent-bailout mechanism being designed is adopted.

     Second, programs have been based on dreamy debt sustainability scenarios in which countries outgrow their debt under severe fiscal tightening. But since these austerity plans cause deep recessions, the debt/gross-domestic-product ratios increase over time in all peripheral nations. How this squares with sustainability, and how the macroeconomics add up, is hard to comprehend.



                           Asset Sales



     One proposed solution has been the sale of state assets.

But currently this would result, at best, in fire sales. If there is low demand for Greek debt, why would investors want the country’s equity? The Latin American experience is that privatization has been, in general, good for efficiency and productivity, but never resolved a fiscal structural imbalance.

     All this shouldn’t detract from the need for fiscal and structural adjustments as part of a long-term solution. But there is no long-term stable solution without debt relief, which, in plain English, means default. There are many ways of defaulting, but it is evident that without a significant haircut for bond investors there is no way out. The real question isn’t whether, but when and how.



                          Market Access



     In this context, two issues arise: regaining market access and contagion. On the first, experience indicates that it is easier to regain market access after a well-coordinated debt- burden reduction than it is before. The example of Uruguay comes to mind. And Argentina, with still pending concerns, could access the market today, if it wished, at half the Greek spread and below Portugal’s and Ireland’s. Another more recent example is the Vienna Initiative, a coordinated strategy used in Eastern Europe to prevent the withdrawal of cross-border banks during the financial crisis. It could be adapted to the periphery to help with a debt restructuring.

     Regarding contagion, it is undeniable a credit event in Greece would cause political contagion in Ireland and Portugal.

But once it happened, it may even relieve the pressure on Spain and other potentially compromised sovereigns. Contagion through the deterioration of bank balance sheets should be addressed by recapitalizing affected lenders within a program financed by the resources directed today to increase the pyramid of debt.



                        Crisis Management



     The institutional crisis-management setting is in disarray:

The European Union wouldn’t oppose a default (if it could use a different word); the IMF demands financial assurances for next year; and the European Central Bank is ardently opposed to any form of debt relief. The most likely scenario is that the ECB will, again, make a U-turn before reaching the abyss (as it did with secondary bond-market purchases). The ECB threats to cut Greek banks from access to liquidity in case of default are very dangerous, and ultimately not credible, because it could trigger an accelerated bank run and detonate a banking crisis, including the possibility of a deposit freeze similar to the one that was such a disaster in Argentina. This would have more potential to damage the euro than any credit event.

     As for the Argentine experience, it is important to remark that, while without the default the economy wouldn’t have been able to recover as it did, the experiences aren’t directly comparable. Argentina was able to devalue its currency and was also helped by a big improvement in terms of trade and significant fiscal adjustment. But there is an important lesson.

Postponing inevitable actions increase the cost of eventual adjustment. At the time of the default, Argentina’s output had already declined by more than 10 percent. A timely and friendlier negotiation aimed at obtaining debt relief would have saved the country several years of pain.

     The current European strategy, if there is one, seems to be to delay the day of reckoning. It could, however, be useful, if the time gained is utilized to prepare for the inevitable default. Just muddling through, in the mist of a cacophony of contradictory statements that further erode the credibility of the crisis-management framework, only creates uncertainty and is a recipe for major disaster.



     (Mario I. Blejer is a former governor of Argentina’s central bank, was a senior adviser to the International Monetary Fund and is currently the vice chairman of Banco Hipotecario SA.

The opinions expressed are his own.)

China’s Trade Appetite Is N.Z.’s ‘Big Story’


By Tracy Withers and Daniel Petrie

     May 31 (Bloomberg) -- New Zealand’s exports to China have surged 40 percent in the past year, sending the local currency to a record high as the nation of 4.4 million people helps feed a trading partner with a population 300 times larger.

     The CHART OF THE DAY shows how New Zealand has become a net exporter to the world’s most populous country as two-way trade has surged and China bought more meat and dairy products. The lower panel tracks the so-called kiwi versus the U.S. dollar and an ANZ National Bank Ltd. index of commodity prices over the past decade.

     The surplus with China contributed to an overall record trade gap of exports over imports in April, and may help an economy hobbled by a February earthquake in the second-largest city, Christchurch, as record-low interest rates and rebuilding bolster consumer spending. The currency jumped 10 percent in the past three months, the biggest gain among Group of 10 currencies, as investors see China’s demand buoying growth.

     “China is the next big story for New Zealand,” Paul Bloxham, Sydney-based chief economist for Australia and New Zealand at HSBC Holdings Plc, said in an interview yesterday.

“The New Zealand economy’s future is really very much dependent on China on the back of strengthening demand for its rural commodities.”

     Finance Minister Bill English last week said the nation is “hooked to the China-Australia train,” and that exports have shown resilience in the face of the currency’s gains. Australia and China, New Zealand’s two largest trading partners, accounted for 35 percent of all exports in the year through April, up from

22 percent a decade ago.

     The kiwi yesterday climbed to 82.19 U.S. cents, its highest level since exchange-rate controls ended in March 1985. Against the Australian dollar, it bought as much as 76.81 Australian cents, the most since Feb. 2.

U.K. Mortgages Should Be Capped to Cure ‘Addiction to Property Inflation’

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-05-30/u-k-mortgages-should-be-capped-to-cure-addiction-to-inflation-.html

Almost two thirds of non-homeowners believe they have “no prospect” of buying a home, according to a survey published today by Lloyds Banking Group Plc (LLOY)’s mortgage division, Halifax. Seventy-seven percent aspire to own their own home, while nearly half of those surveyed said Britain is becoming more like mainland Europe in terms of the popularity of rented accommodation.
The lender surveyed 8,000 people aged 20 to 45 years old in the U.K. and the results were weighted nationally to be representative of the total population, Halifax said.

Berlin Considers a Shift on Greek Debt

Mark Mobius - U Turn

http://sameersaifan.blogspot.com/2011/05/mobius-sees-extended-global-equities.html

Mark is now talking about a new financial crisis being around the corner.

In early part of May this year - he was super bullish on the equity market.

Pls read my post here.

http://sameersaifan.blogspot.com/2011/05/mobius-sees-extended-global-equities.html

Mobius Says Fresh Financial Crisis Around Corner Amid Volatile Derivatives

Monday 30 May 2011

The lost generation and merging of credit bubbles – College graduates go into massive debt and enter a low wage job market. Median starting salary for the class of 2010 is $27,000. Student loan debt soaring while wages decline and delay a generation from buying homes.

http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/college-lost-generation-merging-credit-bubbles-college-graduates-for-profits-student-loan-debt/
The student loan problem connects very closely to the future success or issues housing will face in the next decade. A large part of the housing machine is based on stable and predictable home price appreciation over long periods of time. This equilibrium is broken thanks to the recent housing bubble but also many younger professionals are now carrying student loan burdens that sometimes rival the size of a mortgage.

This is unprecedented in history but we seem to be saying this often during this decade of incredible debt bubbles. The stories of boomerang college graduates heading back home unable to find jobs is now somewhat known by most since the Great Recession started. What is under reported however is that each subsequent class of college graduates is producing a new class of worker that is in massive amounts of debt because of their education and will need to put off buying a home.

Debt is debt and ultimately student loan debt is crushing many young professionals. The fact that many are unable to reap the rewards of their education in the job market is sending repercussions deep into the housing market especially the new home buyer segment. The data on recent college graduates is rather sobering.

Housing Apocalypse Tomorrow – 675,000 homes in foreclosure have made no payment in over two years. The never ending pipeline of troubled real estate.

http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/housing-apocalypse-tomorrow-675000-homes-in-foreclosure-no-payment-in-over-two-years/

There will be no sustainable housing recovery until the shadow inventory is cleared out. As of April with the latest data close to 6.4 million loans are delinquent or in foreclosure. This is a massive number of homes. What is downright disturbing of the 2.2 million homes in foreclosure you have 675,000 homes (31 percent of the pool) that have not made a payment in over two years. That is right, two full years. Apparently one-third of the bank’s strategy in dealing with foreclosures is simply to ignore missed payments.

Glad it took them giant bailouts and four years to figure that one out. The housing crisis strategy is really a banking-centric one and that is why nothing has really been resolved since the crisis started. Banks are dictating the movement going forward so the idea of keeping prices inflated is simply one to protect banking interests. Since the market has very little desire for inflated real estate, banks just slip it under the rug for another day.

Keep in mind that many Americans are seeing lower wages so lower home prices are actually good for their bottom line since it eats away less of their hard earned income. Plus, one-third own their home outright and another 30 percent rent. So this idea of keeping home prices high just for the sake of keeping them high is a ploy that comes out of the suspension of mark-to-market logic. Do people finally get that home prices have to fall to reflect local area incomes?

Panic Capital Flight in Greece, Depositors Yank 1.5 Billion Euros in 2 Days;EU Wants Severe Bail-Out Conditions Including International Tax Collection

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2011/05/panic-capital-flight-in-greece.html

Only a few steps separating from Friday to yesterday's mass panic! From early morning to counter the banks there is serious pressure for withdrawals of deposits, especially small amounts. The pressure on banks began last Wednesday, culminating in yesterday's day.

It is significant that Thursday and Friday, banking sources estimate that rose around 1.5 billion euros in total! According to the same month in May estimated the outflow estimated at least 4 billion from 2 billion in April.

The majority of depositors rushed to withdraw for pensioners and small savers and amounts ranging from 2-3000 lifted until 10 -15 000 euros. Motivation in most cases it was the fear that led the country into bankruptcy, deposits frozen even temporarily left without cash, or even lose their savings.

Politicians do not seem to fully understand the risks posed by a widespread panic, not only for the stability of the banking system but for the economy and the country.

Pensions Leap Back to Hedge Funds

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303654804576347762838825864.html

Public pension plans are lifting hedge-fund investment, seeking to boost long-term returns despite losses suffered in some funds in the financial crisis.

SS says - This is being done at exactly the WRONG time.

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The Fire & Police Pension Association of Colorado, which manages roughly $3.5 billion, now has 11% of its portfolio allocated to hedge funds after having no cash invested in these funds at the start of the year.

UK’s ostrich generation: millions of Britons risk pension poverty

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/pensions/8537526/UKs-ostrich-generation-millions-of-Britons-risk-pension-poverty.html

Joanne Segars, chief executive of the National Association of Pension Funds, said: “Far too many people are trapped in the headlights when it comes to their own retirement. They know they'll need money in their older age, but they're doing nothing to prepare for it.”

French President Says Bondholders Must Share Greek Pain; Greece Mulls Setting up Bad Bank; Lagarde Says Greece Needs "Support" Not Restructuring

Ireland may need more EU/IMF cash: minister

Greece set for severe bail-out conditions

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/eb91ba84-8a27-11e0-beff-00144feab49a.html#axzz1NoIOmp1i


In the latest setback, the Greek government failed on Friday to win cross-party agreement on the new austerity measures, which European Union lenders have insisted is a prerequisite to another bail-out.

Apple at $500 and other predictions from a market bull

http://money.cnn.com/2011/05/26/pf/bob_turner_growth.fortune/index.htm

That's what everybody's asking. So why is it?
I don't have the answer honestly. If there's anything, I would say it's like a digestive phase. They've had this extraordinary growth.
So there's a bit of a pause here. The iPad 2 is doing well. People are focused on the iPhone 5 coming in July or September or next year. So at some point, and I don't know when it's going to be, I think the stock will go from $350 to $450 just fairly quick. In a way it reprices. And the feeling is by 2013, they can earn $50 a share. At that point, they're going to have $100 per share in cash, and the stock should be $500.

-------

But I think there's going to be sustainable economic growth, both globally and in the U.S. Not extraordinary but certainly stable.

SS says - What is wrong with this guy?
Does he not look at Europe???

----------

Okay. But underpinning that is your expectation that the economy is moving forward and upward? The march continues?
Yeah, plus as the weak dollar benefits these companies -- I mean the reason that S&P 500 earnings are probably going to be $100 a share this year and potentially could be $110, $115 next year is because of the weak dollar. So everybody bemoans the weak dollar, of course, but you don't see a company like Caterpillar and Cummins and Ametek fussing too much about the weak dollar because it's the best thing that's ever happened to them.
Short of a really severe economic slowdown, corporate profit growth is going to continue to be quite good. So I think that's kind of the unappreciated story -- how resilient corporations have been and how strong their profit growth has been. To top of page

-------

SS says - weak dollar to stay weaker!!!!!!!! - Yes - one of the greatest crowded trades ever.
Some guys never learn.

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More Americans Need to Work, and to Marry

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-05-25/more-americans-need-to-work-and-to-marry.html

America has long channeled the spirit of its industrious, fertile Pilgrim forebears by working long hours and having many children. Yet since 2006, the number of adult Americans who have never married has risen by more than 5 million. And since 2007, the number of employed Americans has fallen by 7 million. Is the economic slump turning America into Europe?

The bottom line is that in 2010 there were 7 million fewer employed Americans than in 2007. Over the same period, the number of people not working increased by 13 million. So the size of the labor force declined in a country with a growing population, which indicates large numbers of people stopped looking for work altogether.

Europe’s Demographic Trap


It’s possible, in fact, that Europe’s stubborn unemployment has added to its demographic challenges. Low marriage rates typically lead to low fertility rates, which ultimately mean declining populations. Population growth is needed to finance social programs, such as Medicare and Social Security. If America’s low marriage rates lead to lower birth rates, we may have even more trouble supporting our social programs, unless immigration continues to pick up the slack.

Arizona Land Sells for 8% of Price Calpers Group Paid at Peak

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-05-27/arizona-land-sells-for-8-of-price-calpers-group-paid-at-peak.html

A 10,200-acre (4,100-hectare) desert site in Arizona sold for $32.5 million this week, five years after a group with investors including the California Public Employees’ Retirement System paid $400 million for the land.

“Five, six years ago, people were spending $200 million or $300 million or $400 million,” Garrett said in a telephone interview. “This just sold for about eight cents on the dollar.”

Calpers, the nation’s largest pension fund, had investments valued at $209.7 million in MW Housing Partners III in the fiscal year ended June 30, 2007, according to its annual report. The next year, the investment had a negative market value of $102.9 million, the fund said. MW Housing wasn’t listed as a Calpers investment in fiscal 2010, its most recent report.

The listing agent for the Arizona property was Nathan & Associates Inc. in Scottsdale. The land is now used for cattle grazing with future revenue possible from selling its water rights or letting Goodyear expand a nearby landfill, said Kleinman of Arcus Property.

“This won’t be developed in my lifetime,” Kleinman, who gave his age as “mid-50s,” said in a telephone interview. “Our plan is basically buy and hold and resell after the market appreciates.”

Sunday 29 May 2011

This is a city built for a million people - but no one lives here: A special dispatch on the Mongolian metropolis thrust into the 21st Century in a storm of steel and concrete


This is a clear bubble.
The stock mkt is up 700% since March 2009.
No wonder - Apple went an opened an APPLE store in Mongolia last month.

I wonder who is going to buy those IPHONES.

Harry S. Dent - Special

http://realitylenses.blogspot.com/2011/05/harry-s-dent-special.html

This is from my friend PB's BLOG

Thanks PB!!!!

Pending Home Sales Plunge 11.6%; NAR Blames "Tight Credit", Weather, Temporary Soft Patch; Excess Reserve Nonsense Yet Again

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2011/05/pending-home-sales-plunge-116-nar.html


Excess Reserve Nonsense

Banks lend when they think they have a good credit risk provided they are not capital impaired or concerned about capital impairment. That provision is critical.

Banks do not lend from reserves or even need reserves to lend. Loans come first, reserves second.
----


Capital Impairment the Critical Problem

That banks are not lending is a sign of at least one of the following problems, and likely all three.

  • Capital impairment
  • Lack of good credit risks
  • Lack of consumer demand

In spite of what the Fed or the FDIC may want you to believe, many banks are capital impaired. They hold massive amounts of garbage on their balance sheets (especially real estate and commercial real estate), at marked-to-fantasy prices, not marked-to-market prices.

The excess reserves Yun cites are a mirage.

ECB Board Member Says Greece Can Raise $429 Billion Selling Assets; Greece’s Papandreou Vows to Press Austerity, Says Greece "Soon Out of the Woods"

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2011/05/ecb-board-member-says-greece-can-raise.html

Out of the Woods?

If Greece has a debt of 330 billion euros but can get rid of 300 billion euros of it by selling assets, then why does Greece need more aid? Has Greece all of a sudden turned a solvency problem back into a liquidity problem?

Color me skeptical.

If it was so easy, why hasn't it been done? I sense a bazooka bluff statement from Stark hoping to buy more time.

Roubini Says Banks to Plunge Irish Into ‘Disastrous’ Crisis

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-05-27/roubini-says-banks-to-plunge-irish-into-disastrous-crisis.html

“Eventually we’re going to have a sovereign debt crisis that’s going to be disastrous for Ireland and for the euro zone,” Roubini said.

Ireland’s NAMA to Sell U.K. Property Assets, Property Week Says

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-05-28/ireland-s-nama-to-sell-u-k-property-assets-property-week-says.html

As much as 9 billion euros ($12.9 billion) of U.K. property would be sold, Property Week said. NAMA has started selling residential development sites in London’s West End district and Chelsea and office property in the city’s financial district, Property Week said.

Thursday 26 May 2011

Greece casts €100bn shadow over European banks

http://www.ifre.com/greece-casts-%E2%82%AC100bn-shadow-over-european-banks/636786.article

Greek domestic banks are by far the biggest holders of the country’s bonds with some €50bn of exposure, according to a handful of estimates. But another €50bn is held at banks outside the country, with German banks alone exposed to around €19bn of the paper, while French banks hold another €15bn.

Perhaps remarkably, some banks even saw the drop in prices as a chance to increase their exposure to Greek bonds, so as to repo the instruments at full face value at the European Central Bank’s open market operations. “One chief financial officer told me I was a complete idiot not to be buying bonds and that was only back in April,” said one adviser, who asked not to be identified.

Of the estimated €270bn of Greek bonds currently in existence, about a third will mature by the end of 2013.


NYSE Margin Debt Jumps To Three Year Highs, Investor Net Worth Remains At Record Lows

http://www.nyxdata.com/nysedata/asp/factbook/viewer_edition.asp?mode=table&key=3153&category=8

From Tyler Durden

April margin debt data from the NYSE which confirms that in April, despite the turbulence of March, investors actually levered up even more, bringing total margin debt to another 3 year high, and at $320 billion (a $5 billion increase from March), and the highest since the $334.9 billion in February of 2008, just before Bear Stearns became the first bank to keel over and die. And it still has a way to go: the all time high was hit in July 2007, when it was $381 billion.

What does not have a way to go, is Investor Net Worth expressed as Margin debt less Free Credit Cash and Credit Balances in Margin Accounts: this stayed flat M/M at essentially the lowest level ever of just under ($75) billion.

Bottom line: for another month virtually nobody wants or dares to take profit on existing positions.

We can only hope all those hundreds of billions in margin dollars succeed to exit at the same time in an orderly fashion when the inevitable unwind finally does occur.

Systemic Risk Elevated

http://capitalcontext.com/2011/05/25/systemic-risk-elevated/

With China raising rates (and a housing bubble seemingly bursting), Japanese stress from the vicious circle of the tsunami and macroeconomy spiralling with a weak demographic, European banks clearly burdened by mismarked sovereign debt on their books, and a US financial system that continues to practice extend-and-pretend all the time hosuing weighs heavy and TLGP debt must be refinanced, it would make sense that risk is elevated. It should be clear from the chart above that not only is systemic financial risk rising but globally it is becoming more correlated – a factor that should be of great concern for both central bankers and risk managers attempting to mitigate any insolvencies. The apparent realization, of an increasingly inter-linked and even bigger financial system since the financial crisis, among credit market participants is a signal not to be ignored.

We have not seen this reflected in the typical measures such as Libor, OIS etc which became so prevalent among the media during the crisis and the simple reason is the amount of government overlay of simple impliciit guarantees that seem so evident in those markets. This index is transaparent and offers a very clear market interpretation of the stress the global financial system is under. All too often, we have found our old agage that credit anticipates and equity confirms to be true. Keeping a close eye on this financial stability index over the course of the summer as European stress continues will be important.

Hyperinflation Nonsense in Multiple Places

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2011/05/hyperinflation-nonsense-in-multiple.html

Every time the US dollar ticks lower, commodity prices tick higher, or the CPI rises two tenths of a percent, hyperinflationists come out of the woodwork with nonsensical predictions and silly comparisons to Zimbabwe or Weimar Germany.
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Similarities? What Similarities

  • Germany lost World War I
  • The Treaty of Versailles imposed repayment conditions on Germany that could not be met
  • To enforce the treaty, France occupied parts of Germany
  • Germany printed money so fast people burnt stacks of money for heat

What part of that remotely resembles anything that is happening in the US today?

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JW: Let's say the U.S. wants to sell debt to Japan, but Japan doesn't like the way the U.S. is running fiscal operations. It can say, "We don't trust the U.S. dollar. We'll lend you money, but we'll lend it in yen." Then, the U.S. has a real problem because it no longer has the ability to print the currency needed to pay off the debt. And if you're looking at U.S. debt denominated in yen, most likely you would have a very different and much lower rating.

Mish Response:
Williams makes a fundamental mistake regarding trade. Several of them in fact. The US does not go about wanting to sell debt to Japan or China. Rather Japan and China buy US debt as a mathematical consequence of trade imbalances.

Moreover, Japan and China are more dependent on the US for their export model than the other way around. The odds China or Japan would not take US dollars is virtually zero. Both economies would crash without exports to the US. China's unemployment would soar and so would political unrest.

I keep stating, and it keeps falling on deaf ears, that as long as the US runs a trade deficit, it is a mathematical certainty that some country is accumulating US dollars or US dollar denominated assets.
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Myopia

Hyperinflationists have myopia. They only see (or only focus on) problems in the US. They ignore overheating in China, enormous problems in the UK, and huge structural issues in the EU.

The US may have more problems than elsewhere (or not), but that does not imply the dollar might collapse to zero against the currencies of other countries.

Intermediate-term, I actually expect the dollar to rise, but should it sink, it will not be a sign of impending hyperinflation.
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In the final analysis, it's all about attitudes. The Fed cannot force consumers or businesses to borrow or banks to lend (and it wouldn't for reasons stated, even if it could). In a fiat credit-based system, that is what matters.

ECB May Have More Scope for Greek Leeway Than Rhetoric Suggests

http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aOfFjGe5i8tk

While German and French officials say the ECB would no longer accept Greek debt as collateral in its money-market operations should the country be forced to default, the ECB’s rules are less clear and only say that such a step “may be warranted” if officials deem it necessary. The ECB’s rhetoric may be as much about forcing Greece to step up budget cuts as it is about drawing a line in the sand, say Citigroup Inc. and Deutsche Bank AG economists.    

Citigroup estimates that about a third of the county’s debt, or 109 billion euros, is held by so-called foreign non-banks including mutual, pension or sovereign-wealth funds as well as insurers. Greek financial institutions own about 29 percent.    

“If you write those down by half, you wipe out the entire capital stock of the Greek banking system,” said Klaus Baader, an economist at Societe Generale in London. “Complete havoc would be wreaked with the ECB’s ability to conduct monetary policy.”    

Australian Home Loan Delinquencies Jump to Record, Fitch Says

Asian Buyers Dominate London’s New-Homes Market for First Time

http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aXggav7_kxGQ

Hong Kong buyers acquired more homes than any Asian country, accounting for 24 percent of all purchases of newly built properties. Singapore was second with 12 percent and Mainland China third with a 10 percent share.    

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SS says

Foreigners are the last ones to enter the party.

I remember Japan buying US property - like there was no tomorrow - in 1985-90 - just before Japan topped and crashed.

Europe's Split on Debt Crisis Hardens

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304520804576343053520121080.html

"Under the ECB's own narrow interest, there is perhaps no better option than to have the whole of the burden being borne by fiscal authorities—Greek taxpayers and taxpayers of the euro zone," instead of by banks who hold Greek debt, says Sony Kapoor, managing director of Brussels-based think tank Re-Define.
But given the broad political opposition, Mr. Kapoor says, ECB officials have "unfortunately painted themselves into a corner."

Few believe the ECB would cut off Greek banks entirely. But ECB officials maintain a default changes everything, and making an exception for default-rated collateral would put the ECB's balance sheet, and eventually taxpayer money, at risk.

ECB's Balance Sheet Contains Massive Risks

http://www.spiegel.de/international/business/0,1518,764299,00.html

They have accepted securities as collateral, many of which are -- to put it mildly -- not particularly valuable.

These risks are now on the ECB's books because the central banks of the euro countries are not autonomous but, rather, part of the ECB system. When banks in Ireland go bankrupt and their securities aren't worth enough, the euro countries must collectively account for the loss. Germany's central bank, the Bundesbank, provides 27 percent of the ECB's capital, which means that it would have to pay for more than a quarter of all losses.

The failure of a country like Greece, which would almost inevitably lead to the bankruptcy of a few Greek banks, would increase the bill dramatically, because the ECB is believed to have purchased Greek government bonds for €47 billion. Besides, by the end of April, the ECB had spent about €90 billion on refinancing Greek banks.

The Emerald Isle experienced an unprecedented boom that ended in 2007, followed by an equally severe crash. Irresponsible real estate sharks, unscrupulous bankers and populist politicians had ruined the country's finances. It was forced to spend €70 billion to support its banks, even as the government itself was all but bankrupt. In November 2010, the Europeans came to the rescue of the Irish with €85 billion from their joint bailout fund. But Ireland is still far from being rescued.

By 2007, German insurance companies and savings banks, in particular, were buying up Irish residential mortgage-backed securities.

According to the Association for Financial Markets Europe (AFME), the face value of asset-backed securities newly launched on the European market in 2010 amounted to a tidy sum of €380 billion. However, the majority of those securities, worth €292 billion, were never offered for sale. Instead, they served one particular purpose: to obtain fresh cash from the central banks.

But if the euro crisis rumbles on, the worst-case scenario isn't all that far away. To ensure its national survival, Ireland should reject the European rescue effort and, instead, accept the failure of its banks as a necessary evil, Morgan Kelly recently said. The renowned professor of economics at University College Dublin knows who would be especially hard-hit by such a step: the ECB.

Is Your Pension Fund "Going for Broke?"

From EWI
---------------
Mutual fund cash levels have fallen to record lows in recent months. The one-word question is: Why?
The near-certain answer is this: money managers are incredibly optimistic about how they think risk assets will perform. Otherwise they would hold more cash, to defend against the future.
In the past, low levels of mutual fund cash often coincided with market tops. The opposite is also true, as you can see below (the recent 3.4 percent cash level noted in the chart is an all-time record low!):

With that record low 3.4 percent cash level in mind, now consider the cash levels of the nation's two biggest pension funds.
The California Public Employees Retirement System (CalPERS) recently had only 2 percent of its $230 billion allocated to cash or equivalents.
The California State Teachers' Retirement System (CalSTRS) recently had even less in cash or equivalents: just 1.4 percent of its $152.9 billion.
The investment officers who oversee those funds clearly are not afraid of risky investments. They've jumped into them with both feet. (In a recent interview with CNBC, the Chief Investment Officer of CalPERS said he's aiming for a 7.75 percent annual return, which would meet his pension promise.)
All is well when most financial markets are rising. But what if stocks and other risky assets tank again?
It may comfort CalPERS and CalSTRS shareholders to know that the funds are "diversified." CalPERS has 67.1 percent in global equity, 20 percent in global fixed income, and over 7 percent in real estate. CalSTRS has 54.1 percent in global equity, 17.5 percent in fixed income, and over 11 percent in real estate.
But does diversification necessarily protect a portfolio from substantial losses? Should you be comforted by a pension fund that's "spreading the risk?"
"Myth -- diversification protects investors from losses. EWI dispelled this myth long ago, but it took every bit of [the financial collapse], when nearly all markets were down 30%-50%, for the idea of diversification to finally come under scrutiny."
Elliott Wave Financial Forecast, February 2010
This "diversification" lesson comes from very recent financial history. Many markets can go down together.
Millions of households count on the financial health of pension funds. According to CNBC, the present shortfall is about $2 trillion. Pension fund officers are "going for broke" -- which, so far, has worked during the rally.
But what about the months and years ahead?

Wednesday 25 May 2011

U.S. Dollar Unloved by Bond Managers Enticed by Emerging Markets

http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aiJ4X_QvFJ4g&pos=1

May 25 (Bloomberg) -- Top-performing global bond fund managers are sticking with long-term bets against the U.S. dollar even as the currency has rallied more than 4 percent since the end of last month.    

--------

SS says - They are living in denial that the USD can rally

----------

From Bill Gross, who runs the $241 billion Pimco Total Return Fund, to Anthony Norris, whose Wells Fargo Advantage International Bond Fund has $1.8 billion, the investors are convinced that the greenback will lose ground against a range of currencies in emerging markets and selected developed countries such as Australia and Norway.    

---------

SS says - There is no way the AUD can stay that strong for a considerable period of time.
It is at 104 as opposed to 110 few days ago

----------

Fuss of Loomis Sayles is wagering on further gains for the Australian and New Zealand dollars, in part because of their links to growth in Asia.
“They have stuff other people need,” he said in a telephone interview from Boston, referring to commodities exported by the two countries.

---

SS says - They had the same stuff that other people needed in 2008 as well.
This argument is that they have stuff that other people need is non sense.

-------

Obama Says Ireland’s Resilience Will Drive Economic Recovery

Why LinkedIn Bears Like Haverty Say Plunge Is Inevitable

http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=al2kgKoKVwAc&pos=10

“This is not something we even consider investing in,”said Haverty, who helps oversee $35 billion in Rye, New York.“This is a sideshow. It’s a magic show,” he said. “The only question for the investor is how soon they should sell.”    

“There’s no way you can justify its valuation,” said Shacknofsky, who helps manage $7 billion in Purchase, New York, for Alpine, which invested in the IPO and sold the shares on the first trading day. “It’s very difficult to understand its valuation. It’s trading on short supply because it wasn’t a big offering to begin with, and a lot of people who wanted exposure to a quality social-networking play bought it.”    

“The winds are blowing against this thing being worth $9 or $10 billion,” said Haverty. “Wall Street has created an artificial price because they didn’t release that many shares. They underestimated the demand. This happened all the time during what we now affectionately call the bubble period” of the late 1990s, he said.    

“It happened in the late 1990s quite often, where you have these stocks that are essentially concept stocks,” said Barish, who oversees $8 billion as president of Denver-based Cambiar. His Cambiar Aggressive Value Fund beat 99 percent of peers in the past year with a 65 percent return. “The problem is there’s so little operating history. You have absolutely no idea what these businesses are going to look like in a couple of years.”    

Bankia $5.6 Billion IPO Deemed ‘Brutal Stress Test’ of Spain

Zynga Is Said to Plan Initial Public Offering by End of June

English Says N.Z. ‘Hooked to the China-Australia Train’

http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aZaCoWRv2xgA

Prime Minister John Key’s government last week forecast New Zealand’s economy will grow 3.8 percent in 2012 and 3.3 percent in 2013, buoyed by shipments and a rebuilding after an earthquake hit Christchurch in February. Prices of milk powder and cheese have been supported by demand from China, while shipments to Australia have increased as that economy experiences a boom in demand for minerals.    

-----

SS says

I dont so 2012 and 2013 will pan out as he thinks

-------

“We are hooked to the China-Australia train,” English said of the world’s biggest dairy exporter. New Zealand’s story“is more about food and protein” and the demand for those products across Asia “is reasonably solid,” he said.    

“It’s a bit of a headwind as we try to rebalance our economy, but I must say that New Zealand exports seem to have shown remarkable resilience,” English said. He doesn’t expect current high commodity prices to remain in place, although they are likely to be “fairly solid for the next few years.”    

--------
SS says

FAIRLY SOLID - HAHA

We shall see what happens when the commodity bubble bursts in 2012/13/14

Tuesday 24 May 2011

Greenwich’s Priciest Homes Languish With Four Years of Supply

http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ad1q3kxTAx0w&pos=6#

By Oshrat Carmiel
 
May 24 (Bloomberg) -- It’s been more than 500 days since Stanley Cheslock put his 26,000-square-foot Greenwich, Connecticut, “dream home” on the market for $17.95 million.
The house and its surrounding estate -- custom built by Cheslock in 2003, with a movie theater and 3,700-bottle wine cellar -- is waiting for a buyer who sees the current asking price, $15.95 million, as a bargain.

“It’s a steal,” said Cheslock, a co-founder of an investment firm, who has knocked almost 50 percent off the price he was asking when he first tried to sell the property five years ago. “It’s way underpriced.”

Homes priced at $10 million and above are accumulating on the market in Greenwich, a town about 30 miles (48 kilometers) north of Manhattan that’s known as the U.S. hedge fund capital. They’re moving so slowly that it would take more than four years to sell them all, the biggest backlog since at least 2004, according to Mark Pruner, an agent with Prudential Connecticut Realty. Wall Street’s greater emphasis on deferred compensation, in which a portion of an annual bonus will be paid in the future, has stifled demand, he said.

“Our market moves very closely with the financial markets,” Pruner, based in Greenwich, said in an interview.“Deferred compensation has totally hammered the over-$10 million market because people just aren’t getting large amounts of cash, and that market has traditionally been a cash market.”
Fifty-two houses in that price range were listed for sale as of May 19, according to Pruner. Four have sold this year and two are in contract. At that pace, it would take 52 months to sell the inventory, he said. If that backlog remains through the end of the year, it would be the biggest in his data going back to 2004.

Financial-Industry Buyers
“Previously, if you got a $10 million bonus, buying a $5 million house wasn’t that big a deal” said Pruner, who estimates that about half of all homebuyers in Greenwich work in the financial industry.
“If you get $20 million -- $3 million in cash and 17 in deferred compensation -- are you going to borrow another $2 million in cash to buy a house? I don’t think so,” he said.

Cash bonuses on Wall Street declined 8 percent last year as financial firms raised base salaries and deferred some earnings, New York State Comptroller Thomas DiNapoli said on Feb. 23. Companies disbursed $20.8 billion in 2010, down from $22.5 billion a year earlier.

The average Wall Street employee took home a cash bonus of $128,530 in 2010, a drop of 9 percent that was greater than the total decline because the pool was shared among more workers, DiNapoli’s office calculated in a report based on personal income-tax collections.

Less Liquidity
The smaller payouts reflect changes adopted by the industry after the credit crisis, in response to criticism that soaring incentives pushed traders to disregard risk. About 56 percent of financial firms incorporated risk management into performance measures for top executives by the end of 2010, and 37 percent have also done so for lower-level staff, according to a February study by Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Ltd.

“Pay for performance and incorporating risk measures is making its way through more and more of the ranks of Wall Street, and that is going to have an impact because people have less liquidity at bonus time than they used to,” said Constance Melrose, managing director of eFinancialCareers North America, a network of websites for finance industry professionals.

A smaller cash component of bonuses may translate to fewer high-dollar property sales in Greenwich, where the median household income was about $122,000 in 2009, more than twice the national average, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. The town is home to about 90 hedge funds, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

‘More Caution’
“People just aren’t stepping up as quickly as they did in the older days,” said Robin Kencel, a broker at Greenwich Fine Properties, whose listings include a 19-room “English manor estate.” The 11,800-square foot (1,100-square-meter) Tudor-style home, known as Nor Tor, originally listed for $15.75 million and was reduced three weeks ago to $14.75 million.

“There’s just a little bit more caution and buyers seem to be taking a bit more time in committing to a purchase,” Kencel said.

Homes listed for sale above $10 million have spent a median of 204 days on the market, according to Pruner. Of the homes in that category, 29 percent have languished for more than a year. Properties in the $2 million to $3 million range, by comparison, were on the market for a median of 72 days and 12 percent have gone a year or more without a buyer.

$1 Million-Plus
Nationwide, the supply of luxury homes is shrinking, according to the National Association of Realtors. The inventory of unsold houses priced at $1 million or more -- the highest category the group tracks -- declined to 17.8 months in April from 22.9 months a year earlier, said Walter Molony, a spokesman for the Realtors. For all single-family, previously owned homes, the supply was 8.5 months. Properties that sold for at least $1 million made up 1.8 percent of existing-home transactions in April, when the median sales price was $163,700.

In Greenwich, there were 158 total home sales in the four months ended April 30, up 7 percent from
the same time a year earlier, according to data compiled by John Cooke of Prudential Connecticut Realty. The median price of the properties that changed hands in that period increased 39 percent to $1.95 million. Sales of houses valued at $2 million to $3 million jumped 50 percent to 30 transactions.

‘Move Up’ Market
Thirty more deals in the $2 million to $3 million range were pending at end of April, Pruner’s data show, pushing inventory of those homes down to 9.4 months of supply. Home sales in that category, considered Greenwich’s “move up”market, fell the most in almost three decades in 2009, according to Shore & Country Properties in Riverside, Connecticut.

Buyers who shopped for homes above $5 million two years ago have shifted their search to lower price points, said Julianne Ward, a broker with Prudential Connecticut Realty. “Everyone’s toned down their price range by at least a couple of million,”she said.

Owners of the most-expensive homes have the financial wherewithal to stick to their asking price, according to Ward, though she said they’re taking a risk.

“Buyers won’t look at houses that are overpriced,” Ward said. “They have too much to choose from. The houses on the high end, they’re down 30 to 40 percent. Some of them have more to go.”

630 Days
A 10,000-square-foot gated home on the Long Island Sound waterfront sold in February for $25 million, a discount of almost 30 percent, after 630 days on the market. The Field Point Circle property, with five bedrooms, seven fireplaces and a“walled water garden” with walkways made of “hand-cut bluestone slabs,” was originally priced at $35 million, according to the Greenwich Multiple Listing Service.

Still for sale is a 16,900-square-foot colonial with six bedrooms and eight full bathrooms, listed at $12.95 million. The property has been on the market about 100 days.
“The only thing that’s keeping any of these houses not sold is price,” said Joseph Barbieri, a broker with Sotheby’s International Realty in Greenwich, whose listings include four homes priced at $10 million or more.

Barbieri estimates that as many as 10 more properties in that range may come to market by year’s end. He said he’ll list two new ones in the next month.
Stanley Cheslock says he hopes this is the year his 21-acre (8.5-hectare) Hillcrest Estate, with its 50-foot indoor lap pool and “Siberian spruce sauna,” will find a buyer. He first put the property up for
sale in 2006, asking $31 million.

‘Huge Estate’
“The kids were all moved out and the house was larger than we needed,” said Cheslock, 65, founding partner of Cheslock Bakker & Associates, an investment firm in Greenwich. “Right now we’re taking care of this big, huge estate, and while it’s fun, I’d like to do other things.”
Cheslock and his wife spent about $19 million to acquire the land and build the house, plus “a couple
million” more for renovations over time.

In 2008, the couple hired an auction company to handle the sale, ahead of what Cheslock viewed was a softening real estate market. Bids starting at $19 million were solicited over five weeks. None of the would-be buyers sealed the deal with a check or agreed to the sale terms, according to Cheslock and Ward of Prudential, who represented him in the auction.

Cheslock returned to the market in October 2009, separately listing the home along with the 21 acres, and an adjacent 8-acre parcel with a cottage.
The parcel and cottage sold last June for $4.5 million, and the remaining estate, priced at $15.95 million, is still available for a “unique buyer” who craves the privacy of a gated compound at a discount.

“Somebody’s going to get the deal of a lifetime,” saidJason Kinard, managing partner of the Higgins Group of Greenwich, the broker that most recently listed Cheslock’s home.“In anywhere from five to seven years they’re going to be very happy with what the house will be worth and what it can fetch on the open market.”

Lloyds, RBS Among 14 U.K. Banks on Moody’s Downgrade Review

ECB’s Noyer Says Greek Restructuring Would Be a ‘Horror Story’

http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aSFdMNey2cCk&pos=3

“There’s no solution possible” for Greece other than to follow its austerity program, Noyer told reporters in Paris today. “Restructuring is not a solution, it’s a horror story,”and if the country fails to meet the terms of its bailout, Greek government debt will be “ineligible as collateral” at the ECB.    

Noyer said any restructuring of Greece’s debt would cost European taxpayers more as Greek banks would become insolvent, requiring government support that would eventually have to come from other countries. Among other losers in a restructuring would be Greek pension funds, the ECB and
European governments who have already lent to Greece, he said.

“No one will be able to finance the Greek state for coming years,” Noyer said. “This is the horror scenario. That’s why we’re against a restructuring.”

For Greece ‘to reduce the stock of debt, the only solution is ambitious privatization,” Noyer said. “It is necessary to have the equivalent of an internal devaluation. Cut production costs. There is no other solution.”    

LinkedIn down 30% in 2 trading days — PER still at 1,200

http://realitylenses.blogspot.com/2011/05/linkedin-down-30-in-2-trading-days-per.html

This is a link for my friend PB's BLOG.

Pls have a look.

UK: There May Be No Alternative to Housing Boom and Bust

http://www.economonitor.com/blog/2011/05/uk-there-may-be-no-alternative-to-housing-boom-and-bust/

A few days ago Rightmove, the property website, reported that house prices have risen to their highest level for nearly three years. Nothing wrong with that, you might say, except Halifax, part of Lloyds Banking Group, had just said that prices have dropped to their lowest since July 2009.

Some of these discrepancies are explicable. Rightmove measures asking prices, which sellers may not achieve, while Halifax records prices at mortgage approval stage. There are other differences between house price measures – the Halifax’s index always appears more downbeat than the Nationwide – which I will not go into here.

The big picture is that house prices fell up to a fifth when the financial crisis struck nearly four years ago and cut off the supply of wholesale mortgage funding. Then, perhaps surprisingly, they rebounded by 10% or so, since which time they have been roughly flat.

The LSL-Acadametrics index, based on Land Registry data, tells the story well. House prices peaked at an average of £231,828 in February 2008, then fell 14% to £200,234 by April 2009, before rebounding by nearly 12% to £223,482 by February 2010. Last month the average stood at £223,352.
That is a lot of volatility in a short time but minor compared with the huge swings in housing transactions of the past four years. Last month, 45,000 houses and flats were bought and sold in England and Wales, according to Acadametrics. This was just 52% the long-term April average and
barely a third of monthly transaction levels of more than 120,000 four years ago.

The housing market has hit what I would call a low-activity equilibrium, Turnover is depressed but there are few forced sellers: people are staying put. Prices may continue to slip in real terms, as predicted by the National Institute of Economic and Social Research, though I disagree strongly with the view that they will never get back to real (after-inflation) pre-crisis levels.

For that to happen something fundamental would have had to have changed. Housing is damaged at the moment, because of the squeeze on funding and depressed incomes. In the long run, housing will do what it has always done, rise roughly in line with incomes, which means rising in real terms.
The problem is that prices do not rise steadily. Steady is not a word you would associate with the housing market. A few days ago the Joseph Rowntree Foundation’s report, Tackling Housing Market Volatility in the UK was published.

The report, the product of two years of deliberations by a housing market taskforce of experts, including Kate Barker, Peter Williams and Mark Stephens, the report’s author, let fire with both barrels.

“The UK has one of the most persistently volatile housing markets, with four boom and bust cycles since the 1970s,” it said. “These cycles distort housing choices, drive up arrears and repossessions, inhibit housebuilding and heighten wealth inequalities.” Behind the current stasis, it said, there is a fundamental sickness.

“The current model of home ownership has become stretched beyond its limits. Increasing numbers are being priced out of the market and ownership levels are falling, particularly among younger people. There has been a long-run shortage of housing … and this has also made it harder to access social rented housing. Meanwhile, the private rented sector does not offer a sufficiently secure alternative to meet the needs of many households.”

The taskforce has some good ideas, at the top of which is the need to increase housing supply. Though housing starts rose in the first quarter housebuilding remains close to its lowest levels since the 1920s, having fallen sharply during the crisis from levels that were regarded as woefully inadequate before that.

It suggests a shake-up of housing taxation. Stamp duty, for example, should become a marginal rather than a “slab tax. At present, when you move above a stamp duty threshold you have to pay the higher tax across the entire purchase price, rather than just the wedge above the threshold.
It also suggests using housing taxes to dampen the house-price cycle. Another recommendation, which may be taken up by the Bank of England’s new financial policy committee, is the counter-cyclical use of restrictions on mortgage lending.

At a dinner to launch of the JRF report, it was said we will only really have changed as a nation when, instead of regarding rising house prices as good news, the front pages celebrated falls.
I doubt that will happen. Housing is a substantial component of household wealth and more evenly distributed than other wealth. Two-thirds of households are owner-occupiers. Whatever the social benefits of lower house prices, people cannot be expected to celebrate a fall in their wealth.
Greater price stability is another matter. We could all compromise around that. The question is whether it is achievable.

After two years working on the problem, the verdict at the launch was downbeat. A big increase in housing supply would not solve everything but would help hugely. Unfortunately, there is very little sign of it. The builders are convalescing, the planning regime is more anti development than ever and institutions are reluctant to commit funds to the private rented sector.
As for counter-cyclical tax and credit policy, it might help, but there have to be doubts about whether policymakers can ever successfully dampen the animal spirits of homebuyers when they get a head of steam up.

At this stage it may seem fanciful to talk of the next runaway boom in house prices. But, as things stand, it will happen.

China's rating firm downgrades UK credit with "negative" outlook

State Bank of India Profit Slumps 99%

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703509104576328590731459296.html

Mortgage lending slumps by 14%

http://www.guardian.co.uk/money/2011/may/20/mortgage-lending-slumps?CMP=twt_gu

Mortgage lending plummeted in April to £9.8bn, down 14% from the £11.4bn advanced in March and 5% below the £10.3bn lent in April 2010, according to latest data from the Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML).

The organisation admitted that "taken at face value, the underlying picture is one of considerable weakness – revisiting levels seen briefly at the start of 2010". But it blamed the "slight seasonal decline" on Easter falling in April this year, coupled with the extra bank holiday for the royal wedding.

CML chief economist Bob Pannell said: "Statistical noise, associated with extended holidays and the royal wedding, makes it harder to read the immediate market situation. This represents an unfortunate temporary loss of signal at a time when it would be useful to gauge the resilience of house purchase demand to economic uncertainties and the pressure on household incomes.

"Levels of activity look set to remain broadly flat over the near term. It now seems unlikely that interest rates will rise much, if at all, this year, and this should help keep the market on an even keel. Nothing immediately suggests that housing demand is waning."

Pannell also acknowledged the average house price figures from Halifax and Nationwide – showing 1.4% and 0.2% falls in April respectively – are consistent with the UK "experiencing a modest downwards drift of house prices. We would not be surprised if interest in remortgaging wanes a little as expectations of higher interest rates fade and, as a result, activity tails off over the next few months."

Brian Murphy, head of lending at independent mortgage broker the Mortgage Advice Bureau, also said the April lending data should not be taken seriously. "Before the country packed up and went on an extended break, mortgage activity in the earlier part of April was actually running at February and March levels. But then it went off a cliff," he explained. "In May, to date, activity has picked back up and is running at the levels seen in March and the first half of April."

But Howard Archer, chief economist at IHS Global Insight, said there was "little doubt" that housing market activity remains very weak compared to long-term lows, even if it has edged up slightly.
"This fuels our belief that house prices are headed lower over the coming months," he said. "We suspect that further modest falls in house prices are more probable than not over the coming months as tighter fiscal policy and the possibility of gradually rising interest rates before the end of 2011 maintains pressure on the housing market."

Murphy said he had seen an extraordinary period of repricing among lenders, who are vying with each other to attract new business: "This is good news for buyers and there are some very competitive rates coming out, even at higher loan-to-values."

Nationwide building society has reduced the rate on its two-year fixed mortgages by 0.3 percentage points, and its three- and five-year fixed mortgage rates by 0.1 percentage points. This takes its best-buy three-year fixed-rate mortgage to 3.69% (up to 70% loan-to-value), but there is a £400 product fee (rising to £900 for those remortgaging) and a £99 booking fee.

Santander, meanwhile, has launched a two-year fixed-rate mortgage at 90% loan-to-value at 5.29% with a £495 fee, although homebuyers must be a Santander First Home Saver account customer. This pays 5% to non-homeowners aged between 16 and 35 who deposit between £100 and £300 a month by standing order.

Newcastle building society recently expanded its mortgage range with the addition of a new five-year fixed-rate mortgage at 4.99% available up to 80% loan-to-value for first-time buyers and re-mortgage customers, with a completion fee of £499 and a £195 reservation fee.
Louise Holmes at Moneyfacts said the rate on the Santander product was competitive. "Higher loan-to-value mortgages have begun to make a return to the market recently – however, this is certainly one of the best overall short-term fixed package for rate, fees, borrowing amounts and incentives to grace the mortgage market this year."

Protecting the housing market means a lost generation of buyers

http://www.guardian.co.uk/money/blog/2011/may/21/protecting-housing-market-lost-generation-buyers?CMP=twt_gu


Rents have risen to an all time high after the "strongest" April on record, crowed the biggest letting agency in the country this week. Great if you're a greedy landlord, but yet another dollop of misery for tenants, few of whom are enjoying pay rises, and all of whom are seeing food and fuel bills rise relentlessly.

Rents are now 4.4% higher than a year ago across the UK, according to LSL Property Services, which owns Your Move and Reeds Rains. The picture is worst in London where rents are now 7.9% higher than a year ago.

The Jenga tower that is the British property market (economy rubbish, real incomes falling, house prices remaining at near record levels and rents rising) wobbles but just won't fall over. There are simply too many interests – from the banks and existing homeowners through to landlords – determined to keep it standing at any cost.

But they are protecting something that is, viewed globally, uniquely dysfunctional. A report from the Joseph Rowntree Foundation this week said that, on current trends, it won't be long before only one in four couples will be able to afford a home. Three-quarters will be forced to rent (or as one particularly disingenuous buy-to-let lender called it last week, the new "tenure of choice" for young adults).

The property-owning democracy is turning into a rotten borough, said the report's author, Professor Mark Stephens of the University of Glasgow. The only ones able to afford the deposit on a home will be those who can turn to rich parents for a leg-up, which will "increasingly entrench the economic privilege of the children of the better off."

The report calls for radical action, although its proposals are couched so as not to scare the type of chumps who lost all sanity over inheritance tax and who in turn voted for yet another tax break for the super-rich.

One proposal is for a steep increase in house building. A big increase in new-build, in areas of excess demand (which must mean building on the green belt), will help quell UK prices. But we also have to recognise that in Ireland new-build was almost entirely unconstrained, yet the housing market there went as bonkers as ours.

The real lesson of the disastrous housing booms around the world (viz Britain, Ireland, the US, and currently the worst, Australia and New Zealand) is that house prices are purely a function of the amount of finance that can be raised against a property. The crippling cycle of boom and bust is a consequence of financial deregulation, so beloved of Anglo Saxon economies and so destructive.

Forget supply and demand. Hose money over the housing market and prices will go up; turn the hose off and prices will come down.

We have seen in recent weeks an easing of mortgage availability, with an upward creep in the number of 90% loans. But, in reality, banks' total lending will remain constrained for years to come, while young adults who put themselves through strict new "affordability" criteria will find they don't qualify for a mortgage, even at 90%.

The result? With less money lent against property, prices will gradually fall in real terms. But, while that happens, there will be a lost and increasingly angry generation of thwarted buyers.

UK builders see value of orders collapse

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/c51d4426-8573-11e0-ae32-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1NASeVcbO


The value of work awarded to UK construction companies crashed during the past year, raising concerns that the impact of government spending cuts will be far worse than previously feared.
The total value of new work awarded to the UK’s 50 leading construction companies fell by 39 per cent during the 12 months to May, compared with the same period a year earlier, as school, hospital and road building projects were shelved.
The decline in the value contract awards, down from £34.5bn to £21bn according to data compiled for the FT by industry research house Barbour ABI, was particularly skewed towards the large builders focused on state-funded infrastructure programmes.

Balfour Beatty, the UK’s largest construction company by sales, saw the value of orders in the UK fall from £7.4bn to £3.3bn during the period.

Meanwhile, Kier, a top five builder, saw a decline of £800m in the value of new contract awards to £1.6bn. Paul Sheffield, Kier’s chief executive, said the fall across the industry was sharper than he had expected.

“You never know how much to read into this data, but it is sending a signal; there isn’t as much work coming down the pipeline, especially while there is this hiatus on public sector activity,” he said.
The slowdown in workloads comes as the industry grapples to overcome two years of decline and its sharpest fall in activity for 35 years.

The cuts in spending on education, health and transport projects has already taken a toll on the building sector, with flagship Labour schemes, such as Building Schools for the Future being cancelled soon after last year’s election.

However, the real impact of the public sector cuts have yet to hit activity levels, as builders work through part constructed or already awarded projects.

“What the government does not seem to understand is that there needs to be a steady amount of work coming down the pipe for the industry, otherwise you get a gap in activity two years down the line,” said Stephen Ratcliffe, director of the UK Contractors Group, the industry’s trade body.

While the larger builders are likely to bear the brunt of the slowdown in new contracts, the smaller and medium-sized companies are likely to come under increasing pressure to secure lower value contracts as companies of all sizes compete for the shrinking pool of work.