Sunday 31 July 2011

CONSULTING SERVICE AVAILABLE !!!!!!!!!!!!

DEAR ALL

I WOULD LIKE TO LET YOU KNOW THAT I WILL BE OFFERING A CONSULTING SERVICE FOR

- HIGH NET WORTH INVESTORS.

I SHALL BE COVERING - EQUITY INDEX FUTURES, SELECT COMMODITIES AND SELECT FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKETS.

THE FOCUS IS TO USE OPTION STRATEGIES TO LIMIT DOWNSIDE RISK AND PROVIDE UNCORRELATED RETURNS.

I SHALL BE PROVIDING TRADE IDEAS WITH A MEDIUM TERM OUTLOOK.

PLEASE FEEL FREE TO CONTACT ME BY EMAIL FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

SAMEEER SAIFAN



Saudi Shares Reach Four-Month Low

Sea monsters

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/2/66032456-b2e6-11e0-86b8-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1TefaI7q5



Possession of a superyacht signifies that you’ve entered the big league – you’re in or close to the Forbes 500. It allows you to float, on your seafaring home, where you will – in Moss’s case, through a crystal-clear Mediterranean taking in Portofino, the south of France and Corsica.

Any self-respecting billionaire must be in possession of a yacht – the larger the better. Roman Abramovich has four, and his most recent seaworthy one is the 170m Eclipse, which cost £685m to build. It has nine decks, a cinema and a mini-submarine – the holiday “essentials”. The master suite comes complete with a sliding roof so the occupants can sleep under the stars. There’s also a paparazzi shield that deflects photographers’ lenses and flashes.

It makes previous superyachts look small by comparison. Larry Ellison’s Rising Sun started life at 120m in the planning stages but by the time it was launched it was 138m. Rumour has it that this was to trump Paul Allen of Microsoft’s Octopus, which stretched to 126m. Ellison’s yacht was designed with a trophy room for the express purpose of housing the America’s Cup; the yacht hit the seas in 2004 but it was six years until the trophy was claimed.

There is an attitude among some yacht owners that bigger is better and these superyachts can resemble supertankers as they lurch through the high seas – crossing from the Med to the Caribbean as the season dictates. A full tank of diesel can cost £300,000. It’s no wonder that some leave their yachts in harbour; it is said that Paul Allen’s yacht remains docked in Cap d’Antibes with its master on board because the cost of fuel is so prohibitive.

A super yacht
Eos, owned by Diane von Furstenberg

There is a sense of showmanship in yacht design. Andrey and Aleksandra Melnichenko commissioned Philippe Starck to create the interior of their all-white A (named after Aleksandra). There are three Perspex swimming pools that light up at night. Barry Diller and Diane von Furstenberg’s Eos is, at 93m, one of the largest sailing boats in the world, with the tallest mast. It pays homage to the old school of sailing, the days of Onassis and Agnelli, when style ruled. In that mould, designers such as Armani and Valentino hold the Italian flame for style with their boats. Armani’s Main is all pared-down minimalism. The crew are required to change three times a day into Armani-designed uniforms and the teak and aluminium-lined decks are kept immaculate. This is aesthetic perfection and Armani admits that it’s the most financially indulgent of his 10 homes. For flamboyance, the name of the Dolce & Gabbana yacht – Regina d’Italia – says it all.

Designers flock to work on yachts to create something distinctive – the über-chic French designer Christian Liaigre has had several yacht commissions. This is one side of the story. The other is the innovative engineering that builders of yachts help develop. The godfather of yacht design was Jon Bannenberg, the go-to designer for the very rich from the 1970s until his death in 2002. He was a master of taste and an all-round aesthete who understood the engineering of superyachts. Bannenberg‘s enthusiasm, passion, talent and ability to encourage those around him – from client to shipyard worker – represented all that was best about the world of yachts.

His business is now headed by his son Dickie and creative director Simon Rowell. They are well aware of the image of bling and excess that has become synonymous with superyachts, and lament that the craftsmanship, the generations of skilled artisans, the design work and the architecture of yachts are overlooked. It is the sensational stories of celebrity guests and expenditure of vast sums of money that generate the most interest.

Rowell explains the contribution shipyards make to the “cutting-edge of all manner of engineering, from glass and electronics to propulsion and paint”. He recalls a recent launch of one of their superyachts when the young son of the owner crawled all over the massive sculpted coffee tables, created by Bannenberg & Rowell with Silverlining furniture designers, in jeans and a zipped top. The tables came to no harm due to the nanotechnology that had been used to create scratch-resistant surfaces.

“To have an industry that simultaneously drives forward, crosses over and utilises technological advances while marrying them to the finest traditions in craftsmanship and handed-down knowhow is an often overlooked benefit for all associated businesses,” Rowell says. “It’s also proven to be something to which the ‘old world’ has managed to turn its hand rather well, a source of national pride for those involved, myself included.”

So who is buying and commissioning these yachts, and where are they going? The Greeks helped set the trend for yachting, as it provided them with the perfect excuse to discover their unspoilt islands in the 1960s. These islands have now geared themselves up to mass tourism; one suspects the prices go up when the islanders spot the arrival of a yacht, and why not? In the 1970s it was Europeans who were largely commissioning and the 1980s and 1990s were dominated primarily by the Americans and Gulf states. The noughties were the decade of the Russians and former Soviet Union – pushing the price, length and fuel consumption to increasingly profligate levels. There remains the middle market, although tens of millions are required to purchase a mid-size yacht. And then there are the running costs which are – as a rule of thumb – approximately 10 per cent of the purchase price. This is not a pastime for anyone but the ultra-rich.

Another option is to rent and most yacht owners, however wealthy, charter out their boats. The average time spent on board for an owner and their family is rarely more than four weeks a year, so it’s fiscal insanity not to charter out your yacht for the remainder. Edmiston is one of the leading yachting brokers, with offices in London, Dubai, Moscow and elsewhere. As a general rule you could rent a 46m yacht that sleeps 12 and has a crew of eight for about $200,000 per week. It’s a lot cheaper than buying and puts me in mind of an American millionaire who once cautioned, “If it flies or floats, rent it.” Prince Stas Radziwill – a regular on the Agnelli yacht – used to say one should never spend more than 10 days on a yacht, and ideally no more than a week. The cruising grounds of St Tropez and Sardinia are firmly on the summer map. A habitué of St Tropez’ Le Club 55 complained to me that it is now impossible to swim in the sea outside the restaurant due to “the tankers” that perch there. Other favourite destinations are Portofino, the Greek and Croatian islands, the Amalfi coast and Aeolian islands. In winter the Caribbean still reigns supreme, with St Barts being particularly popular. Brazil, with its stunning coastline and new-found affluence, is also entering the market.

Superyachts have a tough press and perhaps they deserve it. They’re seen as the ultimate symbol of conspicuous consumption. They are, however, the ideal travelling villa, with all the luxuries of the most decadent of private homes. The expense is unquestionably enormous but what a holiday: docking in Corsica one night before sailing through the Mediterranean down to Sardinia the next, then on to Capri and the Amalfi. The choices and destinations are endless and it’s the perfect way to see a coastline. Being on the sea, the privacy, the escape, gazing at the stars in the clearest of skies – there’s an enormous allure and it can get in the blood. The design and engineering aspects, the skill and craftsmanship, the dedication that yards and designers demonstrate in order to create sculptures for the sea are something to celebrate. Whether we celebrate every owner of every superyacht is another question.

Canada GDP Declines .3%, Largest Drop in Two Years - Don't Worry It's "Temporary"; Canadian Apologists Be Warned

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2011/07/canada-gdp-declines-3-largest-drop-in.html

Canadian Apologists Be Warned

Canadian apologists say weakness is overstated and temporary. I say it's understated because few realize what is happening and how serious this is.

Global stimulus has faded. It's gone. Kaput. And that stimulus was the only thing holding this global economy together.

Strip out government spending, QE madness in the US, and unsustainable credit growth in China and you have a flatline global economy at best.

It's Not Temporary

Headline be damned, it's not temporary.

Europe is now in austerity-mode, US cities and states are cutting back, the odds of more fiscal stimulus in the US are roughly zero, the US might (and should) lose its AAA rating, Australia is a basket case on the bursting of its property bubble, Canada has the second or third largest property bubble next to China and Australia, the bond market is targeting Italy and Spain, Brazilian defaults are soaring, China is overheating and needs to slow, yet the average economist is looking for a robust second-half. Go figure.

In aggregate, economists are the most optimistic group on the planet.

Natixis Asset Prefers Spain to Italy on EFSF’s Help for Banks

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-07-29/natixis-asset-prefers-spain-to-italy-on-efsf-s-help-for-banks.html?cmpid=

SAMEER SAYS

NATIXIS IS STUPID AS SPAIN AND ITALY ARE IN THE SAME BOAT

IT IS LIKE SAYING - I PREFER TO BE KILLED AND EATEN BY A TIGER RATHER THAN A LION - AS THE TIGER HAS TEETH THAT ARE HALF AN INCH SMALLER THAN THE LION!!!!!

HAHAHA!!!!!!!

Treasury Yields Fall to 2011 Lows

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-07-30/treasury-yields-tumble-to-2011-lows-amid-deadlock-slowing-economic-growth.html?cmpid=

SAMEER SAYS

TO ALL THE IGNORANT PEOPLE - WHO WERE SAYING THAT RATES WILL SPIKE UP - USA WILL HYPER INFLATE - PRINT IN Q3 4 5 5 6 ....

RATES ARE AT LOWS AND US 1 3 6 MONTH YIELDS ARE AT 0%

THIS MEANS THAT PEOPLE ARE HAPPY PARKING MONEY IN T BILLS AT NO YIELDS

AND WHY WOULD THAT BE?

BECAUSE - PEOPLE ARE NOW CONCERNED WITH PRESERVATION OF CAPITAL AND DONT CARE ABOUT INTEREST INCOME - THIS IS A SIGN THAT SAYS THAT THEY ARE SCARED ABOUT DEFLATION

WHERE IS THE INFLATION BTW??????

FOR ALL THE IDIOTS WHO TALK ABT GOLD BEING AN INFLATION HEDGE - PLS GO AND CHECK YOUR FACTS -

GOLD IS NOT AN INFLATION HEDGE

FROM 1980S TO 2001 - WE DID HAVE INFLATION AND GOLD FELL FROM 850 TO 250

CAN THE GOLD IS A INFLATION HEDGE CAMP  - PLS STAND UP AND EXPLAIN WHY GOLD FELL WHILE INFLATION ROSE - AND HEY - INFLATION IS NOT RISING PRICES - IT IS INCREASE IN MONEY + CREDIT IN SYSTEM - LOOK AT M1 M2 M3 CHARTS

U.S. Homeownership Falls to Lowest Since 1998 on Tight Lending

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-07-29/u-s-homeownership-rate-falls-to-lowest-in-13-years-on-stricter-lending.html?cmpid=

SAMEER SAYS

TIGHT LENDING ?????

AS I'V SAID BEFORE - BANKS WONT LEND AND CONSUMERS WONT BORROW

THE FED CAN PRINT AS MUCH AS WANTS - BUT IF THE SENTIMENT ON THE MKT IS TO PAY BACK ITS DEBT AND TAKE ON NO NEW DEBT - NO MATTER HOW MUCH YOU PRINT - IT WILL BE WORTHLESS

CREDIT CONTRACTION CAN OUTPACE MONEY PRINTING - AND THIS IS WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN - AND THIS LEADS TO DEFLATIONARY OUTCOMES

YOU CAN TAKE A HORSE TO THE LAKE - BUT CANT FORCE HIM TO DRINK - IF HE IS NOT AT ALL THIRSTY!!!!!

The U.S. homeownership rate fell to the lowest level since 1998 in the second quarter as stricter lending standards blocked purchases and foreclosures forced people out of their residences.

The strictest mortgage standards in more than a decade are disqualifying potential buyers while owners are being evicted from homes after falling behind on loan payments, said Wayne Yamano, director of research at John Burns Real Estate Consulting in Irvine, California. Home purchases fell in June to a 4.77 million annual pace, the National Association of Realtors said July 20. If housing demand remains at that level, 2011 would have the fewest sales since 1997.

SAMEER SAYS

THE PEOPLE WHO SAY THAT RATES ARE SO LOW AND PEOPLE WILL BORROW - ARE REALLY FOOLISH.

RATES ARE NOT LOW FOR THE END CONSUMER - BANKS ARE CHARGING BASE RATE ( AND THIS IS LOW ) + A HUGE SPREAD IN ORDER TO MAKE MONEY - AND THIS IS NOT LURING THE CONSUMER

LOOK AT UK FOR EXAMPLE

BASE RATE MAY BE 0.25% BUT CAR LOAN , MORTGAGES AND PERSONAL LOAN RATES ARE ALL ABOVE 8% OR SO

A LOAN AT 8% MAKES SENSE ONLY WHEN YOU EXPECT TO MAKE MORE THAN THAT - OR ELSE THE TRANSACTION IS STUPID

IN CASE OF HOME LOAN - BUY TO LET - YIELD SHOULD BE 8% - WHICH IS NOWHERE TO BE SEEN

IN CASE FOR BUYING A HOUSE TO LIVE - YOUR WAGES MUST GROW ABOVE THE RATE AT WHICH YOU SERVICE THE LOANS - IN GENERAL - AND THIS IS NOT HAPPENING



Friday 29 July 2011

Perth’s Home Prices Tumble 5.8% as Mining Boom Bypasses Property Market

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-07-29/perth-s-home-prices-tumble-5-8-as-mining-boom-bypasses-property-market.html


Property prices in Perth, the center of Australia’s mining boom, may fall further this year after slumping the most out of any state capital in the past 12 months, an Australian Property Monitors economist said.
“Perth will probably bottom out toward the end of the year and we’re not looking at a positive turn around until next year’s first quarter,” Andrew Wilson, senior economist, said in a phone interview from Sydney yesterday. “There’s entrenched low buyer and seller confidence in the market and it’s hard to turn that around.”
Perth home prices fell 5.8 percent in the 12 months to June to a median A$535,617 ($588,750), compared with the 2.4 percent national decline to A$546,121, Wilson said in a report yesterday. The city’s home prices fell 1.5 percent in the three months to June, compared with the national average of a 0.6 percent decline. Unit prices in the city have fallen 6.1 percent in the past 12 months.
Perth property prices have stalled after doubling between 2004 and 2007 even as the economy booms on the back of the resource-rich Pilbara region. Much of the A$264 billion of investment planned for Western Australia is being overseen in the state capital, with work starting onChevron Corp. (CVX)’s A$43 billion Gorgon liquefied natural gas project and BHP Billiton Ltd. and Rio Tinto Group’s expansions to iron ore operations.

Demand Next Year

“We probably won’t see any improvement in prices this year,” Alan Bourke, principal at Bourkes Real Estate, said in a phone interview from his South Perth agency today. “Hopefully things will start to recover next year. Some of the top-end rental properties are starting to be taken by executives in the resources sector, with a lot of people coming in from Chevron and the other major players.”
Western Australia’s economy is growing as demand for its resources remain high, the state’sChamber of Minerals & Energy said in a July 20 statement. Gross state product is expected to expand 4.4 percent in the 12 months to June 30, 2012, it said.
Western Australia remains the heavyweight champion of the Australian investment landscape,” Deloitte Access Economics said in a separate report yesterday. “The volume of resources projects underway is huge. Western Australia also has no shortage of major investment projects in planning.”
About A$264 billion of investment is planned for Western Australia, compared with $184 billion for the next closest state, Queensland, Deloitte Access Economics said.

Two Speeds

While Western Australia’s mining and energy industries are booming, other sectors of the economy, including real estate, are struggling. Australia’s economy shrank 1.2 percent in the first quarter, the most since 1991, because of natural disasters.
Australian retail sales unexpectedly dropped in May and consumer confidence this month plunged the most since Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. collapsed in September 2008. Credit to home buyers in May increased at the slowest annual pace since 1977, when central bank data begins.
“Once we break the pessimism affecting the non-mining sector parts of the economy, prices will improve,” said Bourke, who is also president of the Real Estate Institute of Western Australia. “For the long term it’s one of the greatest places in the world to buy and even the medium term looks good.”
In the Pilbara, 1,500 kilometers (930 miles) to the north of Perth, mining and energy projects are causing a housing shortage. Karratha’s median home price in March was about A$805,000, and the suburb of Port Hedland’s was A$1.06 million, up 25 percent from the year before, REIWA figures show.
Australia’s largest state by area, with 2.6 million square kilometers (1 million square miles) of land, earned A$93 billion from minerals and energy exports during 2010, or 68 percent of the national total.
“Sentiment in Perth’s property market will turn around because incomes, already the highest in the country, will rise further, there will be a strong need for accommodation, and new supply has been limited,” Wilson said. “The resources sector in Western Australia is extraordinarily strong. The work coming through is in the pipeline and not speculative.”

Jewels Seized, Helicopters Grounded as Irish State Agency Chases Debtors

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-07-28/jewels-seized-helicopters-grounded-as-the-irish-government-chases-debtors.html


Ireland’s National Asset Management Agency is overseeing the sale of helicopters and seizing jewels belonging to debtors as it chases loan repayments and a 1 billion-euro ($1.4 billion) profit.
Set up in 2009 to purge banks of risky commercial real estate loans, the Dublin-based agency posted a loss of 1.18 billion euros last year after impairment charges of 1.49 billion euros. The agency, also known as NAMA, is looking for buyers for marshland in Dublin, an airport and some of the most expensive land in the country, according to a list published today.
“One of my colleagues told me yesterday he just secured 200,000 euros worth of jewels” a debtor had bought for his partner, Brendan McDonagh, NAMA’s chief executive officer, told reporters in Dublin today. NAMA’s top 180 debtors owe it a “staggering” 62 billion euros, he said.
NAMA still expects to make a profit of 1 billion euros over its lifespan, McDonagh said. The agency paid 30.2 billion euros for loans with a face value of 71.2 billion euros, after a decade-long real estate boom collapsed in 2008. Ireland’s government now controls five of the state’s six largest banks.
The agency acquired 11,500 loans related to 850 debtors. NAMA, which made an operating profit of 91 million euros in the first quarter, published today a list of about 850 properties it seized through the appointment of receivers.

Firesales

Booterstown Marsh, on the coast in south Dublin, Weston Airport in Leixlip, Co. Kildare, south-west of Dublin are on the list. The agency is also looking for buyers for bars in the U.K. and real estate in Kensington in London. Two houses on Ailesbury Road, among the dearest streets in Dublin, are also listed.
Among the London properties to be sold are The Forge, Island Point and the 62-story City Pride tower, three development projects in the Docklands in east London.
NAMA is also selling the Odeon movie theater at Leicester Square in central London and two adjacent sites.
The agency, which has approved a cumulative 3.9 billion euros in asset sales, won’t engage in “firesales” to dispose of assets, McDonagh said.
NAMA didn’t say how many developers had been forced to sell helicopters. Frank Daly, chairman of the agency, said the Galway race festival, which typically draws real estate developers, attracted fewer helicopters this year.
“I don’t know whether that’s a success for NAMA or not,” he said.
To contact the reporters on this story: Finbarr Flynn at fflynn3@bloomberg.net; Joe Brennan in Dublin at jbrennan29@bloomberg.net

China Regulator Said to Tell Banks Provisions for Bad Loans Are Inadequate

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-07-29/china-regulator-s-bad-loan-provision-inadequate.html


China’s banking regulator told lenders they haven’t set aside sufficient funds to cover losses on loans to local governments and ordered them to accelerate debt collection, a person with knowledge of the matter said.
The lenders were told this month that they are lagging behind the China Banking Regulatory Commission’s schedule for revising the loan agreements on infrastructure projects, the person said, declining to be named because the information is confidential. The agency had asked banks to collect two repayments a year after construction is completed.
The comments reflect persistent concerns that $1.7 trillion of lending to local governments may spur a wave of bad debts that could lead to the nation’s third banking bailout in less than two decades. As much of 30 percent of the credit may sour, Standard & Poor’s estimates, after a surge in lending that powered China’s recovery from the global financial crisis.

Striking Greek Cabbies Say Government Must Pay for Black Market Licenses

McDonald’s to Open a Restaurant a Day in China in Four Years

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-07-29/mcdonald-s-franchises-to-account-for-up-to-20-of-china-business.html

“We should be opening a restaurant every day in the next three to four years” in China, Peter Rodwell, company president for Asia excludingJapanAustralia and New Zealand, said in an interview in Singapore today. “We’re now opening a restaurant every other day.”


SAMEER SAYS


CHINA WILL BE IN A SEVERE RECESSION IN 4 YEARS TIME.



Swiss National Bank Posts $13.5 Billion First-Half Loss on Declining Euro

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-07-29/swiss-national-bank-posts-13-5-billion-first-half-loss-on-declining-euro.html

SAMEER SAYS

IDIOTIC GOVTS AND THEIR IDIOTIC POLICIES AND THEIR STUPID MONEY LOSING INTERVENTIONS!!!!!!


The Swiss central bank saw its first-half loss nearly quadruple from a year earlier on the declining value of its international reserves, reviving criticism of its president, Philipp Hildebrand.
The Zurich-based Swiss National Bank posted a loss of 10.8 billion Swiss francs ($13.5 billion) compared with a 2.78 billion-franc shortfall in the first half of 2010, it said in an e-mailed statement today. Exchange-rate-related losses amounted to 11.7 billion francs and the bank lost 1.55 billion francs on its gold holdings.
The central bank came under criticism as it amassed foreign currencies in the 15 months ending June 2010 in a bid to stem the Swiss franc’s gains and counter the risk of deflation. That left the bank’s balance sheet vulnerable to currency swings. The franc’s advance against the euro contributed to a 21 billion- franc loss in 2010.
“Today’s figures are the result of the SNB’s breakneck intervention policy,” Martin Baltisser, secretary general of the Swiss People’s Party, the largest in the lower house of parliament, said by telephone. “The central bank shouldn’t have intervened, because it couldn’t prevent the franc from appreciating anyway. Philipp Hildebrand and the government that elected him have to decide whether he is the right person to be the president.”

Gains Versus Euro

Hildebrand became chairman of the SNB’s governing board on Jan. 1, 2010.
In the second quarter, the SNB posted a loss of 12.7 billion francs. The loss on foreign-currency positions, which includes valuation losses, amounted to 11.4 billion francs and the loss on gold holdings was 1.56 billion francs.
The Swiss currency advanced 0.4 percent to 1.1442 per euro as of 10 a.m. in London, approaching the 1.13737 record set on July 18. The franc was little changed against the dollar at 80.20 centimes after it reached a record 79.90 yesterday.
The bank’s accumulation of foreign-currency reserves sparked a debate in Switzerland, with politicians and economists lined up on both sides of the issue.
Susanne Leutenegger Oberholzer, a Social Democrat lawmaker, said the central bank should have “intervened more decisively” to weaken the franc and deter speculators.

‘Huge Losses’

“In that case they might have stopped the franc’s appreciation early and they wouldn’t have posted these huge losses,” Leutenegger Oberholzer, a member of the Committee for Economic Affairs and Taxation in the National Council, the lower house of parliament, said by telephone. “In addition, exporters wouldn’t have to cope with the franc’s strength now.”
The government last month lowered its forecast for 2012 economic growth to 1.5 percent from 1.9 percent, saying the franc represents “a burden on Swiss exports.” The projection for 2012 export growth was cut to 3 percent from 4.7 percent.
SNB Vice President Thomas Jordan said on July 13 that he was “very concerned” about recent currency developments. Asked whether the central bank would be willing to intervene again, he said that “if there was a situation with a deflation threat, then we’d have the possibility to act.”
“It’s the job of a central bank to ensure price stability,” said David Marmet, an economist at Zuercher Kantonalbank in Zurich. “In order to achieve that, they can even accept losses on a temporary basis. In addition, the euro- area fiscal crisis has wrong-footed policy makers.”
The SNB is a joint-stock company in which public shareholders including Swiss cantons and cantonal banks have a controlling stake. Individuals hold the remainder. The national government holds no shares.

Franc, Yen Rally as Debt Impasse, Moody’s Spain Review Spur Refuge Demand

Banks Must Cut ‘Footballer Pay’ to Help Investors, Say U.K. Fund Managers

China Should Favor U.S. Stocks Over Treasuries as Default Looms, Xie Says

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-07-29/china-should-favor-u-s-stocks-over-treasuries-as-default-looms-xie-says.html

SAMEER SAYS

HAS HE LOST HIS MIND?

I THINK BEAR MKTS HAVE A TENDENCY TO MAKE PEOPLE GO NUTS!!!!!

I THINK ANDY SHOULD QUIT THIS BUSINESS AND GO FISHING.
===


China should buy U.S. stocks instead of Treasuries as they may be safer investments amid concerns about a U.S. debt default or credit-rating downgrades, according to Andy Xie, an independent economist.
“The U.S. stock market can be a credible alternative,” Xie, 50, formerly Morgan Stanley’s chief Asia economist in Hong Kong, said in an interview in Bloomberg’s Shanghai office yesterday. “U.S. companies are reporting strong earnings and they are selling a lot to emerging markets. Even though U.S. stocks aren’t cheap by historical standards, they are a better investment relative to Treasuries.”
Standard & Poor’s 500 Index companies are beating analysts’ earnings estimates for a 10th straight quarter, and the group surpassed its annual per-share profit record of $84.66 from 2007 last year. Analysts see 17 percent income growth in 2011, according to the average estimate in a Bloomberg survey.
The prospect of a U.S. default could spur fund inflows into emerging markets, fueling inflation in countries ranging from China to India, Xie said. The economist said in October 2010 that China would face a “big battle” to contain inflation, which jumped to a three-year high last month. He also accurately predicted in April 2007 that China’s equities would tumble.

Loss of Confidence

China is the biggest foreign investor in Treasuries, as holdings reached a record $1.149 trillion in April, a Treasury Department report said in June. Former Chinese central bank adviser Yu Yongding said July 27 that China should reduce its Treasury holdings amid an impasse among policy makers on raising the U.S. government’s debt limit.
China’s appetite for Treasuries will wane as the country loses confidence in America’s government, Stephen Roach, non- executive chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia Ltd., said yesterday in an e-mailed note. Treasuries rose yesterday, pushing 10-year yields to a one-week low, on concern the debt deadlock will damage the economy.
U.S. House Speaker John Boehner, falling short of the votes within his own party needed to increase the debt limit after a night of one-on-one appeals to members, canceled a vote on a plan that Senate leaders pledge to defeat.
President Barack Obama’s administration and Democrats and Republicans in Congress are locked in a stalemate over the type of deficit-cutting measures that should be tied to an increase in the nation’s $14.3 trillion debt ceiling. The Treasury Department has said the U.S. exhausts its borrowing authority on Aug. 2 and risks going into default. S&P, Moody’s Investors Service and Fitch Ratings have said they may downgrade the U.S.’s top AAA rating if lawmakers fail to reach agreement.

‘Least Risky’

A newspaper published by China’s central bank ran a question-and-answer article on the debt stand-off today that said U.S. bonds are the world’s most stable and least risky and only America’s debt market could absorb China’s investment of foreign-exchange reserves.
The biggest impact on China from a default would be through a global recession, rather than the losses on its currency holdings, which would be “serious,” Jin Minmin and Liu Lina, reporters at the Xinhua News Agency wrote. The article, reprinted in the central bank’s Financial News, also said that most analysts see the U.S. as unlikely to default.

Seek Safety

“Some have been talking about cutting investment in U.S. debt for years. But the question is what else is safer? Europe is in trouble,” said Yang Delong, a Shenzhen-based fund manager at China Southern Fund Management Co. which oversees $21 billion. “China does need a variety of investments but safety should be the priority in any government move.”
SAMEER SAYS
USE COME COMMON SENSE !!!!
SOMETIMES PURE CASH IS A GREAT ALTERNATIVE.
YOU DONT ALWAYS HAVE TO BE INVESTED.
AND WHEN YOU ARE FACING DEFLATIONARY WINDS - CASH IS KING.
CHINA - PLS WAKE UP!!!!!!
U.S. Treasuries are a safe investment, Lawrence Lau, head of the Hong Kong-based unit of China Investment Corp., which runs the nation’s $300 billion sovereign wealth fund, said at a forum in Beijing on May 12. Equities rose by 12 percentage points last year to 48 percent of its global portfolio as of Dec. 31, CIC said in its annual report released on July 26.
“U.S. bonds are not safe, but people think they are safe,” Yu, a researcher at a Beijing institute under the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told reporters in Mumbai this week. “That is a mirage.”
Concern the U.S. credit rating will be cut has dragged the benchmark S&P 500 Index (SPX)down 3.3 percent since July 22, the day Boehner, a Republican, walked out of negotiations with Obama. The index has advanced 3.4 percent this year on speculation earnings growth will hold up even as the world’s biggest economy slows.

Biggest Beneficiary

Singapore, whose economy grew faster than China’s last year, could be one of the biggest beneficiaries as money flows out of Treasuries, according to Bank Julius Baer & Co. and Schroders Plc.
Funds that can only invest in assets with the highest credit rating would reallocate to countries that have that ranking such as Singapore, said Mark Matthews, Singapore-based head of research for Asia at Bank Julius Baer, which manages about $205 billion in client assets. Singapore is rated AAA by Moody’s and Fitch.
“Whether U.S. shares are necessarily better than U.S. debt -- maybe,” said Lee King Fuei, a Singapore-based fund manager at Schroders, which oversaw $323 billion as of March 31. “If U.S. debt and the dollar is what you are worried about, you should consider the Singapore currency and stocks. Generally, Asian stocks are probably looking much better.”
Xie favors U.S. energy and agriculture companies because of rising demand for commodities from emerging markets, he said, without naming any stocks. Since leaving Morgan Stanley, the former World Bank economist has worked as a fund adviser and written opinion articles for Caixin Media Co., a Chinese financial news company, and Bloomberg News.
“China should buy U.S. stocks,” Xie said. “Stocks are better than bonds.”
--Allen Wan in Shanghai, Weiyi Lim in Singapore. With assistance from Irene Shen, Zhang Shidong, Victoria Ruan and Paul Panckhurst. Editors: Darren Boey, Nick Baker.
To contact the Bloomberg News staff for this story: Allen Wan in Shanghai atawan3@bloomberg.net