Wednesday 27 July 2011

Signs of Deflation


SS SAYS

LOOK AT THIS CHART
THIS IS THE M1 MONEY MULTIPLIER
LOOK AT THE COLLAPSE

THIS IS A CLEAR SIGN OF DEFLATION TAKING HOLD AND GATHERING STEAM

WITH SO MUCH MONEY THAT HAS BEEN PRINTED - THE BANKS ARE JUST NOT LENDING

THE MONEY MULTIPLIER SHOULD BE SPIKING UP - BUT IN REALITY WE ARE SEEING A COLLAPSE AS BANKS ARE SCARED TO LEND - AS THEY THINK THE GUY ON THE STREET CANT PAY BACK - AS HE MAY NOT HAVE A JOB OR SO

THE CONSUMERS ARE ALSO NOT BORROWING
THEY DONT NEED A LOAN AS OF NOW AS THEY ARE DEEP IN DEBT

THEY NEED TO DE LEVER
THEY NEED TO PAY BACK ALL DEBTS AND STOP SERVIVING THE INTEREST

THEY NEED TO SAVE
THEY NEED TO KEEP A CASH CUSHION

SO THIS IS WHAT HAS HAPPENED IN THE LAST 3 YEATS AFTER QE 1 AND 2
THE COLLAPSE IN THE MONEY MULTIPLIER IS A SIGN OF THE COMING DEFLATIONARY BUST AND THE APPROACHING DEPRESSION

THIS CHART WILL LOOK MUCH WORSE 3 YRS FROM NOW

AS DEBT DELEVERS AND DEBTS ARE PAID BACK AND CREDIT CONTRACTS - CASH WILL BE KING AND DELFATION WILL WIN

AS I V ALWAYS SAID  -

CREDIT CAN CONTRACT AT A MUCH FASTER PACE THAN YOU CAN PRINT MONEY

WHEN THIS HAPPENS - WE WILL WITNESS REAL DELFATION LIKE 2008

THE 2009 - 2011 RALLY IS A DEAD CAT BOUNCE

ITS A RELIEF RALLY

IT IS NOT SUSTAINABLE

THE MKTS WILL COME BACK TO 2008/09 LOWS

JAPAN IS A CLASSIC CASE OF WHY MOENY PRINTING WILL NOT WORK AND HAS NEVER WORKED

QE1 FAILED - MKTS CRASHED RIGHT THRU QE1
WE WERE IN WAVE 1 OF C AS PER EWI

QE2 WAS IN WAVE 2 AND WAVE C OF 2
SO IT FELT LIKE IT WORKED

AS WAVE 3 GATHERS STEAM - WE WILL SEE THE COMING DISASTER

THE PEAK IN NKY IN 1989 AND THE PEAK IN HOUSING IN USA BEARS THE SAME HALLMARK OF THE CREDIT BINGE THAT HAD JAPAN GROW IN THE 90S LIIKE CRAZY

I HAVE NO CLUE AS TO HOW THE FOOLISH GUYS ON WALL STREET TALK ABT INFLATION

1ST OF ALL - INFLATION IS NOT RISING PRICES
INFLATION IS INCREASE OF MONEY + CREDIT IN SYSTEM

PRICES RISE BECAUSE OF THAT

BUT WE HAVNT SEEN OVERALL PRICE RISE IN EVERY ASSET CLASS - SO I DONT THINK WE HAVE SEEN INFLATION IN 09 - 11

HOUSING IN USA IS COLLAPSING - SO WHERE IS THE INFLATION

JUST BECAUSE OIL AND FOOD PRICES WENT UP - DUE TO LIQUIDITY COMING FROM FED - IT DOESNT MEAN WE HAVE INFLATION

AND THEN I DONT UNDERSTAND THE FOOLS WHO TALK ABT HYPER INFLATION

FOR US HYPER INFLATION TO OCCUR - I MEAN- THEY SEE THIS IS THE IMMEDIATE RISK ON THE HORIZON -

THEY SEE THE DEATH OF THE US DOLLAR -
THEY SEE USA INFLATING ITS WAY OUT OF DEBT BY HYPER INFLATION

ARE CHINA, UK AND JAPAN AND ALL OTHER HOLDERS OF US DEBT STUPID - TO JUST LOOK AT USA DEVALUE USD AND INFLATE ITS WAY OUT OF DEBT -

WHAT WILL HAPPEN TO US T HOLDINGS OF THESE COUNTRIES?
WHY WILL THEY TAKE A 50% HAIR CUT ON THEIR USD HOLDINGS?

I REALLY FEEL PEOPLE WHO SAY HYPER INFLATION IS COMING IN THE NEXT 1  - 3 - 5 YEARS ARE REALLY STUPID

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LOOK AT THIS CHART
THIS IS A CLASSIC CHART OF THE VELOCITY OF MONEY
VELOCITY IS FLAT AND IS NOT RISING
FROM 2009 TO NOW - ITS A FLAT LINE

THIS IS A CLEAR SIGNAL FROM THE MKT THAT DEFLATION HAS BEEN GAINING STRENGTH

IF FED PRINTED TRILLIONS AND GAVE THE BANK THAT MONEY TO LEND - WHY IS VELOCITY NOT INCREASING - WHY ARE BANKS NOT LENDING - WHY IS THE US HOUSING MKT NOT RISING - WHY ARE UK HOUSING PRICES NOT FLYING IN THE AIR

THIS IS BECAUSE YOU CAN PRINT - BUT CANT FORCE THE BANK TO LEND - NEITHER CAN YOU FORCE THE GUY ON THE STREET TO BORROW

MARGIN DEBT ALREADY SHOWS HOW MUCH DEBT THE GUY ON THE STREET HAS

WHY WOULD HE WANT TO BORROW MORE

AFTER A CRASH OF 50% IN HOUSING AND PRICES STILL FALLING - WHY WOULD HE BUY A HOUSE

WHY WOULD HE NOT WAIT FOR IT TO FALL MUCH FURTHER

WHY WOULD A GUY BORROW MONEY FOR A CAR - IF HE ALREADY HAS ONE -

WHY WOULD HE BORROW MONEY FOR A HOLIDAY - HE IS SCARED ABT HIS JOB AND NEEDS SECURITY -

SO - IN SUMMARY - THE COLLAPSING MONEY MULTIPLIER AND NON RISING - FLAT - VELOCITY ARE SIGNALLING THAT THE MAJOR RISK ON THE HORIZON IS DEFLATION AND NOT INFLATION

WALL STREET IS FOCUSING ON THE WRONG PROBLEM!!!!!!!




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