Thursday, 23 December 2010

2011/12 - Is it going to look like a mini - 2008 ?

It is pretty likely that the European crisis may turn out to be so problematic that the sub prime US crisis would look like a blip.
The EU could engage in QE or so.
A full blown sovereign crisis in Europe is in the making (look at Spain, Italy, Belgium and later France and Germany).
A run on the bank in Spain or Italy is inconceivable but definitely possible if things are not sorted out soon and this will be the one to watch (like Ireland now).
Germany on the face of it looks OK but I think this is the one to watch as they cant completely bail the GIPSI out nor can they back off and let them fail. They are as they say - going from the frying pan into the fire.
USD will be stronger in 2011 and look for EUR touching 1.0 to 1.18 territory with the USD in 2011/12.

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