Thursday 23 December 2010

2011/12 - Themes to keep an eye on...

Keep an eye on -
  1. US Muni Market - Nov 2010 saw the first signs of stress
  2. European Sovereign Crisis - Greece was in April 10 and Ireland in Nov 10
  3. Rate hikes in China - Can they break / slow the commodity bull
  4. Property bubble in Australia + Canada - Will Chinese slowdown burst the bubble
  5. USD to be strong Vs EUR
  6. Decoupling (Asia Vs WEST) and Diversification - This is a myth
  7. Gold and Silver may drop but it may be possible that they fall less relative to equity and commodity markets
  8. Japan - This may surprise us to the downside most probably after mid 2011 (NKY to peak close to 12,000, weak YEN beneficial for NKY in short term)
Also please note that the only 3 assets that were +ve in 2008 were Short Term US Treasuries, Gold and US Dollar.

HF's in general will most likely suffer in 2011 as intra asset correlation is running at high levels and a reversal will hurt most players.

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