Tuesday, 26 April 2011

Crazy Linear Extrapolations - Silver Gold Oil

It is so funny that the same people who are calling for Silver to reach $150, Oil to reach $250 and Gold to reach $2500 were nowhere to seen or heard when in 2008/2009 oil was at $33, Gold was at $680 and Silver was at $8.

Just after these markets have run up 2x or 3x in the last years - suddenly they get their linear regression tools and estimate the future price based on the past.
This is just plain stupid.

When oil was at $140 and going up, these same people made projections of $200 , $300 oil. They were on TV saying these things are we say oil go to $33.

And what about some common sense - if oil is at $200 - what happens to the global economy?

What happens to the stock market - what about the high oil price led recession due to a simple reason that higher oil prices cut into the wallet.

Oh Yes - and I hear from a stupid hedge fund manager who says that THE GLOBAL ECONOMY CAN NOW WITHSTAND HIGHER OIL PRICES THAN $140 AND EVEN $200.

Please - open your eyes and step into the real world.

I also heard from another hedge fund manager that the earthquake in Japan is a positive thing for the world economy.

What !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

The rationale was that this is going to bring in massive infrastructure spending.

This is just unbelievable.

Then I heard from another hedge fund manager that cash is worst place to be -  the Fed is going to hyper inflate - all currencies will loose their purchasing power over time and Gold and Silver is the place to be.

Hello!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

You dont walk into Starbucks or Tesco and hand in your Silver bar to pay for your coffee or shopping.

You still need DOLLARS.

People plainly assume that hyper inflation is on the way.
Do they even know what they are talking about?

We are not in Zimbabwe or Weimar Germany.

The biggest crowded trade of all is not long Silver or Oil or Equities or Gold or short DOLLAR.

It is the EXPECTATION OF INFLATION AND MAY BE HYPER INFLATION.

I have heard only 3 people so far who really understand what is going on in the world right now.

BOB PRECHTER
HARRY DENT
NOURIEL ROUBINI

Everybody else is just plain WRONG.



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