Wednesday 27 April 2011

US Equity Market


SPX still in the channel and looking up.
It has gone above 1344 which was the Feb 19 high.
I cant see an extreme in bullishness to call a top right here.
Indicators have shown extremes in data and sentiment but it does not feel like the market is ALL IN as they say in POKER.


We may have to wait until summer.
It may be a double top and the market may head lower but I am not sure if that will happen.
It may be the case that the US Dollar bottoms around summer.
This would be the time when all assets peak in sync.
This would be the ideal scenario.



So we may see that there is some more life in SPX for the coming days.
USD may bottom soon as well.
AUD , CAD, EUR and GBP may also peak in sync then.
Oil is also close to peaking.
Same goes for Gold.
Also Asian markets need to find some sort of intermediate peak.
That is not immediate but sometime around summer if may be the case.
I think Silver has peaked or may take one last stab to $50 - that is it.


Summary
It is not the time to be buying stocks.
It is time to sit on the sidelines and just wait.
The best trade on the long side would be US Dollar.
I dont see anything apart from that - that I can and should buy.


Lots of assets to sell - but only if you like shorting.





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