21st April
While the VIX closed at a 52-week low on Wednesday, the CS Fear Barometer closed at a 52-week high on Tuesday. What this means is that overall volatility is expected to be low over the next 30 days, but S&P 500 traders are rapidly bidding up the price of protective put options relative to speculative call options.
This has not been a good omen for the market.
There have been 5 other times that the VIX was scraping along at or very near a 52-week low while the CSFB jumped to a 52-week high (and 2 more when the VIX was within 2% of a 52-week low). 6 of those 7 occurred within 3-11 days of an intermediate-term market peak. The dates are 3/19/98, 7/16/98, 12/16/03, 1/16/04, 1/6/10 and 4/9/10 and 2/11/11.
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