Thursday 21 April 2011

Inflation Expectation - The Latest Bubble

http://marcfaberblog.blogspot.com/2011/04/value-of-us-dollar-will-be-its.html


http://jimrogers-investments.blogspot.com/2011/04/it-will-be-difficult-to-stop-inflation.html


http://peterschiffblog.blogspot.com/2011/04/risk-of-holding-us-dollars.html


It is strange that so many smart people around the world are all focussed on the same story - the coming inflation and the death of the US dollar.


It feels like there is a bubble here - the expectation of inflation and may be hyper inflation in the future and hence the death of the US dollar.


This is the most commonly held view in the market as of now.


In my view


http://nourielroubiniblog.blogspot.com/2011/03/there-are-no-alternatives-to-us-dollar.html

Roubini is right on the fate of the USD.


USD bearishness is at an all time peak - this would be the most opportune time for a bounce back.


The most common themes out there are as follows -


- the coming inflation  / hyper inflation
- death of US dollar
- dollar down hence gold going up
- silver going up in sync with gold
- equities are the best place to be
- oil to keep on going up
- bond yields to spike up
- Fed will print print and print and devalue the USD , lead or hyper inflation hence own risky assets


In my view - this is just one trade ie short USD long risky assets


The USD is not going anywhere



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