Wednesday 27 April 2011

European Peripheral Bond Yields


GREEK 2 YR BOND 
Yield at 25%
I cant understand why people think they are going to survive.
ECB is now in a trap.
There is no way Greece can generate revenue to pay back this debt.
Greece is not Japan - they dont have high tech expertise
Greece is not China - they dont have cheap labour and manufacturing
Greece is not US - they dont have expertise in defence , pharma and technology
Greece is not India  - they dont have cheap labour nor service based industry
Greece is not Germany - they dont have competitive labour and manufacturing expertise
Greece is not Russia/Saudi/Brazil - they dont have natural resources


What does Greece have then?
I have no answer.
I dont know.


I cant think of a single global leader/firm that comes to mind when I think Greece.




IRISH 3 YR GOVT BOND YIELD
Look at the spike in April
They already have taken 6 bailouts
Long road ahead for Ireland to rebuild itself.
At least they have a competitive corporate tax rate that lures Global Firms to set up base
They have some chance of coming back - I think
But before that - a decade of pain for sure
Very difficult to see where the real GDP growth is going to come from
Plus they have had mass outflow of population that has left Ireland








PORTUGAL 2 YR GOVT BOND YIELD
12%
Look at the spike in April


I have the same argument for Portugal as Greece
What do they do?
What do they produce?
Are they in the top 3 in the world in any category?
Pls help as I have no clue.





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