Risk is Rising

Skew Index from Bloomberg.


SKEW (as the CBOE prefers) will measure out-of-the-money S&P 500 options to determine the risk of unanticipated, or Black Swan, events threatening the market.


The higher the SKEW number, the more the danger of what traders referred to as tail risk—or occurrences that occur farther out on the edges of the traditional bell curve.

It just matched the 2007 number and is getting close to the all time high in 2006.


Is this is a signal of rising complacency and the coming crash?


I think so - YES
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FEAR INDEX from CSFB.


The market is as EUPHORIC as it was in the summer of 2007.


This index is flashing.


We have a pretty high probability of a severe market decline in the coming months.


Also pls note my latest post in MARGIN DEBT - It posted the 2nd highest number of record.


The crowd seems to have gone ALL IN.


Every indicator that I am following is telling to be ALERT as of now.


I think we should now think about moving in CASH.


This is no time to be greedy for a few basis points of performance.


Silver - as I have stated before is on an unsustainable path.
I dont know the end point of this rally - it may be 50 or so.
But I do expect and think that it will head back to 8 or below.


As they say - MARKETS GO UP AN ESCALATOR BUT COME DOWN AN ELEVATOR.


We are about to see this soon - I think.