Wednesday, 20 April 2011

What's Hated Most May Be a Contrarian Buy (U.S. Dollar)

http://www.oftwominds.com/blogapril11/dollar-rally4-11.html

Extract below


As I have noted before, there really is only one trade in the global markets: the U.S. dollar on one side and everything else on the other. Stocks, the euro, the yuan, real estate, precious metals, commodities, bat guano, quatloos, you name it, they're all trading in tight correlation against the dollar.


The ubiquity and virulence of anti-dollar sentiment reminds me of the sentiment toward gold in 2000. Gold had underperformed for 18 years, while stocks had made dizzying gains in that same time span. Buying gold in 2000 was for the deranged or sadly deluded. Looking back, selling stocks and buying gold at $300 an ounce in January 2000 was a very low-risk and profitable investment.


As a trader, I see one trade: the dollar vs. everything else. That means if everything else tanks, then the dollar will rise. As a trader, I don't really care about the fundamentals of this possibility, or the complex reasons why it's "impossible." All sorts of "impossible" things happen, often very perversely when everyone seems to believe they are impossible.

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