http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aw1BaNrs6w6E
Luxury sector will be one of the last ones to budge and reverse.
This is not crash proof.
2008 is a great example.
There is a counter argument that I hear - that recessions dont matter to the super rich.
Trust me - they do and a they do a lot!!!!!!
Pls see chart above.
This is the ML Luxury Index.
From about 60 in 2002 it went to 180 in 2007.
So a 300% rise.
Cheap credit can buy a lot of Louis Vuitton's !!!!!!!!!
It then fell from 180 back to 60.
Back to where the bubble began in 2002.
But look at what I said - in my last post -
BUBBLES GO BACK TO FROM WHERE THEY START.
THEY GO UP AN ESCALATOR AND COME DOWN AN ELEVATOR.
This is a classic example.
But look at what happened from 2009 lows.
It has rallied back from 60 to 197 now.
This is a 328% rise in 2 years.
It took just 2 years now as opposed to 5 years last time.
This is UNBELIEVABLE.
After we have gone thru 2008 - which was one of the most devastating financial events since 1929 - and we see this.
The markets are high on DOPE.
This is not going to end well.
I ask one question - where are the people getting the money to buy these luxury goods - and that too after 2008.
Dont tell me it is all from emerging mkts like China , India etc.
This is a BUBBLE.
It will go back to 60 and now I think even below 60.
It is one of the best SHORT candidates out there.
Summary ----------
LUXURY is set to collapse.
Short this INDEX or its constituents.
We will see an almost vertical crash here - worse than 2008.
It is because this time the bubble took less time to build so it will crash even much faster than you think.
Luxury sector will be one of the last ones to budge and reverse.
This is not crash proof.
2008 is a great example.
There is a counter argument that I hear - that recessions dont matter to the super rich.
Trust me - they do and a they do a lot!!!!!!
Pls see chart above.
This is the ML Luxury Index.
From about 60 in 2002 it went to 180 in 2007.
So a 300% rise.
Cheap credit can buy a lot of Louis Vuitton's !!!!!!!!!
It then fell from 180 back to 60.
Back to where the bubble began in 2002.
But look at what I said - in my last post -
BUBBLES GO BACK TO FROM WHERE THEY START.
THEY GO UP AN ESCALATOR AND COME DOWN AN ELEVATOR.
This is a classic example.
But look at what happened from 2009 lows.
It has rallied back from 60 to 197 now.
This is a 328% rise in 2 years.
It took just 2 years now as opposed to 5 years last time.
This is UNBELIEVABLE.
After we have gone thru 2008 - which was one of the most devastating financial events since 1929 - and we see this.
The markets are high on DOPE.
This is not going to end well.
I ask one question - where are the people getting the money to buy these luxury goods - and that too after 2008.
Dont tell me it is all from emerging mkts like China , India etc.
This is a BUBBLE.
It will go back to 60 and now I think even below 60.
It is one of the best SHORT candidates out there.
Summary ----------
LUXURY is set to collapse.
Short this INDEX or its constituents.
We will see an almost vertical crash here - worse than 2008.
It is because this time the bubble took less time to build so it will crash even much faster than you think.
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