Friday, 15 April 2011

Special Report On Pensions - Falling Short

http://www.economist.com/node/18502013?story_id=18502013&fsrc=rss


Pls read the above


The key points from the article are -


The first is that people are living longer, but they are retiring earlier than they were 40 years ago. A higher proportion of their lives is thus spent in retirement. 


Second, the large generation of baby-boomers (in America, those born between 1946 and 1964) is now retiring. But the following generations are smaller, leaving the children of the boomers with a huge cost burden.


Third, some employees have been promised pensions linked to their salaries, known as defined-benefit (DB) schemes. In the 1980s and 1990s the true cost of these promises was hidden by a long bull market in equities. But the past dismal decade for stockmarkets depleted those funds and left employers on the hook for the shortfall. 


Fourth, private-sector employers are now providing pensions in which the payouts are linked to the investment performance of the funds concerned. These defined-contribution (DC) schemes transfer nearly all the risk to the employees.


In bearing that burden, the key figure is the ratio of workers to pensioners, known as the support (or dependency) ratio. This is deteriorating steadily in all rich countries (see chart). As a result, the tax burden is set to rise, at a time when many countries are still struggling to cope with the fiscal deficits left over from the financial crisis.


Either taxes must rise or benefits must be cut.


Japan, which started greying earlier than other developed economies, can be viewed as an ominous precedent.



Where Japan has led, other ageing economies may follow. This special report will focus on rich countries, where most of the problems arise. The details may differ but the impact of the baby-boomers shows up everywhere; their pensions will be a huge burden on coming generations.
----------


So as per Harry Dent as well - the baby boomer has peaked in the West and this should lead to a natural decrease in spending and consumption.


This sets the stage for the coming decade of deflationary environment that we are about to witness.





No comments:

Post a Comment