The Real Black Swan Event - A Gold Crash

SAMEER SAYS

• THE WHOLE WORLD IS GOING CRAZY OVER RISING GOLD PRICES.
• THERE IS NOBODY WHO IS WILLING ACCEPT THAT GOLD PRICES CAN FALL IN VALUE
• I THINK THE REAL BLACK SWAN EVENT THAT WILL SURPRISE EVRYBODY THIS YEAR IS A DROP IN GOLD PRICES
• PEOPLE ARE PROJECTING GOLD PRICES TO HEAD SOON TO $2500, $3000, $5000 AND $9000 (IV SEEN $9000 QUOTE ASWELL)
• EVERYBODY IS PILING INTO GOLD LIKE THEREV IS NO TOMORROW.
• NOBODY SPOKE ABOUT GOLD WHEN IT WAS NEAR $250 - IT WAS ONE OF THE MOST HATED ASSETS DUE TO ITS 20 YEAR DROP FROM 850 TO 250
• MOST CENTRAL BANKS SOLD GOLD NEAR THE LOWS
• NOW THEY ALL TALK ABOUT BUYING GOLD INCLUDING INDIA, THAILAND ETC
• I THINK CENTRAL BANK GOLD BUY AND SELL ACTIVITY IS A GREAT CONTRARIAN SIGNAL
• THE SENTIMENT INDEX ON GOLD IS RECORDING 95% NUMBER FOR A LONG TIME NOW
• I CAN SEE GOLD GOING A BIT PARABOLIC NOW AS SILVER DID THIS YEAR IN APRIL 2011
• I THINK WE ARE ABOUT TO SEE SOME KIND OF GOLD PRICE PEAK BUT I DONT KNOW WHAT THAT NUMBER IS
• TODAY GOLD IS AT 1750+
• I THINK WHEN MASS LIQUIDATION BEGINS GOLD WILL SELL OFF LIKE IT DID IN 2008
• IT WENT FROM 1040 TO 680 - THAT WAS STILL A 35% DROP OR SO
• I THINK THIS WILL BE A REAL SHOCK IF GOLD WERE TO DROP FROM 1700 TO 1000 LEVELS OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT 12-18 MONTHS
• THAT IS A 40% DROP - SO IT IS STILL POSSIBLE
• I THINK THIS IS THE REAL BLACK SWAN EVENT THAT NOBODY IN THEIR DREAMS ARE EXPECTING TO HAPPEN
• THERE IS A LOT OF MONEY GOING INTO GOLD EFTS TOO AND IT IS GETTING CLOSE TO A POINT WHERE AT ONE TIME IN APRIL THIS YEAR -SILVER ETF VOLUME SURPASSED SPX ETF - THIS WAS AN ANOMALY AND A SIGNAL THAT SILVER WAS CLOSE TO A PEAK
• SILVER DID PEAK AT 49 AND THEN CRASHED TO 33
• THEN IT ROSE IN A DEAD CAT BOUNCE TO 42 - THIS WAS EXPECTED
• IT SHOULD HEAD LOWER TO MID 20S
• I THINK A LOT OF PEOPLE ARE TALKING ABOUT THE DEATH OF DOLLAR AND HENCE A GOLD BULL MKTS
• MAJOR BANKS ARE CALLING FOR GOLD AT 2500-3000 RANGE THIS YEAR
• I DID NOT SEE A SINGLE BANK THAT SAID GOLD WOULD GO UP IN 2001 WHEN GOLD WAS BOTTOMING
• I THINK WE ARE ALSO VERY CLOSE TO A USD BOTTOM - WHICH SHOULD SIGNAL A GOLD TOP AND A TOP ALSO IN JPY AND CHF
• AS OF NOW IN MY VIEW - SILVER HAS TOPPED , EQTY MKTS HAVE TOPPED , OIL MAY ALSO HAVE TOPPED AT 120+
• SO THE ONLY ONES REMAINING ARE GOLD, DXY , JPY, CHF
• AUD I THINK ALSO HAS TOPPED NEAR 110 OR SO
• IF WAVE 3 BEGINS SOON AS PER EWI - THEN WE MAY SEE A HUGE DROP IN MOST RISKY ASSETS BUT I THINK MARGIN CALLS WILL MAKE GOLD SELL OFF A REAL POSSIBILITY AS WELL