Monday 8 August 2011

France AAA Rating on the Line; S&P Says 1 in 3 Chance of Further US Downgrades; Contagion in Downgrades? Currency Crisis Escalates; Euro Endgame

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2011/08/france-aaa-rating-on-line-s-says-1-in-3.html

With the US AAA rating gone, how long can France hold its AAA rating? I suspect not long. So where will that leave the ECB attempting to put a circle around Italy? Will Germany have to backstop all of Europe?

Those are the new key questions and notice how the key question list keeps growing larger in size and significance.
Countries do not care much about losses on treasury holdings. They care about exports. Notice how even amidst the S&P downgrade of US debt Japan's reaction is to buy more.

Global Currency Wars

In spite of its stated "strong dollar" policy, clearly the US wants a lower dollar. It is equally clear (and stated) that Japan wants a lower Yen, Brazil wants a lower Real, Switzerland wants a lower Swiss Franc, and China does not want the Yuan to rise.

Yet every month, someone talks about China or Japan or some other country dumping treasuries or dumping the dollar.


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