Sunday 7 August 2011

GLOBAL FX, CMDTY, AND RATES MKT - CHART UPDATE

AUD
SOMETIME IN THE NEXT 4 YEARS , ALL OF AUD GAINS FROM 2001 WILL GET RETRACED

HARD LANDING IN CHINA, COMDTY CRASH, OIL CRASH ALL POINT TO AUD WEAKNESS


CHF
IT HAS BEEN VERY STRONG
SOMETIME THIS YEAR OR NEXT - IT SHOULD PEAK AND WEAKEDN VS USD

BASE CASE IS FOR A VERY STRONG USD RALLY

DXY
THIS IS THE MOST IMPORTANT CHART
DOLLAR IS VERY VERY CLOSE TO A BOTTOM
THE NEXT PHASE IS A HARD UP MOVE IN DXY

LOOK AT LAST 3 MONTHS IN DXY AND LOOK HOW POOR EQTY MKTS HAVE BEEN

EURO
I THINK EUR HAS PEAKED AT 149
IT MAY ATTEMPT AGAIN FOR 149 - BUT THAT WILL BE IT
THIS IS THE EYE OF THE STORM
I EXPECT EURO TO COMPLETELY CRASH IN THE NEXT 4 YEARS

THERE IS NO HOPE HERE
ECB AND EFSF CAN KICK THE CAN DOWN THE ROAD - BUT YOU CAN ONLY STRETCH UNTIL A CERTAIN POINT

I THINK WE ARE VERY CLOSE TO THAT POINT


GBP
I THINK THE PEAK HAS BEEN SEEN
170 WAS THAT NUMBER IN MY VIEW
I DONT SEE ANY REASON TO SEE GBP AT 180 OR 2 LIKE IN 2007
UK IS DONE
THERE IS NO GROWTH
THERE IS NO ROSY OUTLOOK THERE
OVERALL GBP SHOULD HEAD LOWER
ITS BETTER THAN EURO -


JPY
VERY STRONG LATELY
I THINK WE ARE CLOSE TO A PEAK HERE TOO

MY YEN TARGET IS 120

A STRONG DOLLAR WILL DO THAT

GOLD
IT LOOKS STRETCHED
I THINK WE ARE IN THE LAST STAGES OF A GOLD BULL
THIS MAY BE AN INTERMEDIATE TERM PEAK LIKE 2007 WAS
I THINK GOLD WILL FALL - BUT LESS IN RELATIVE TERMS


SILVER
IN MY VIEW SILVER HAS PEAKED AT 49
WE SAW THE DEAD CAT BOUNCE FROM 33 TO 42
ITs NOW AT 38
I THINK WE ARE HEADING TO MID 20S

SPROTT HAS GOT IT COMPLETELY WRONG ON SILVER
HE THINKS ITS GOING TO 80 AND 100 AND 150
I SAY - NO WAY!!!!!

AND PLS - SILVER IS NOT MONEY - ITS NOT REAL MONEY - ITS NOTHING - JUST A METAL

US 2 YR RATES
ALL TIME LOWS HERE
WHERE ARE THE HYPER INFLATIONSISTS?
I DONT SEE ANY INFLATION HERE?

ITS EASY FOR STUPID PEOPLE TO SAY - THAT USA WILL HYPER INFLATE - PRINT PRINT PRINT - AND SOLVE ITS DEBT PROBLEM BY DEVALUE - ING THE USD DOLLAR

THESE IDIOTS FORGET - MORE THAN 50% OF US DEBT IS HELD OUTSIDE , SO IF US BONDHOLDERS LIKE CHINA AND JAPAN - SEE THAT USD DOLLAR IS GETTING DE VALUED AND THAT THEIR HOLDINGS ARE WORTH NOTHING - THEY WONT KEEP QUIET - THEY CAN DUMP ALL US BONDS BEFORE THAT - FORCE RATES TO RISE AND US WILL GO IN TO BIG TIME DEPRESSION - DUE TO RATE RISES THAT WILL CAUSE DEFAULTS AT ALL LEVELS LIKE AUTO - STUDENT - HOME - CREDIT CARD ETC ETC

THERE WILL BE FINANCIAL WAR AND THIS WILL BE VERY VERY UGLY

SO NOBODY IS GOING TO HYPER INFLATE , NOBODY IS GOING TO DUMP ALL US TSYS, SO NO HYPER INFLATION NOW

US DOLLAR IS RESERVE CURRENCY NOW , SO FOR THE TIME BEING , THE STATUS QUO REMAINS, THERE IS NO OTHER CURRENCY THAT CAN TAKE THAT PLACE

NOT GBP - THE AGE OF THE EMPIRE IS OVER!!!!!!!
NOT EURO - FORGET EURO - IST DEAD

NOT GOLD  - YOU CANT WALK INTO STARBUCKS AND PAY A GOLD GRAM AND BUY AN AMERICANO

NOT CHF - TOO SMALL
NOT JPY - TOO MANY DEBT PROBLEMS...

ANY OTHER CANDIDATES PL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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