Sunday 26 June 2011

U.S. Markets Not Vulnerable to Big Drop, Barclays’ Kantor Says

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-06-23/u-s-markets-not-vulnerable-to-big-drop-barclays-kantor-says.html

SS say
SPX is down 100 points already from 1370.

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U.S. stocks aren’t likely to see price declines similar to those during the financial crisis of 2008, said Larry Kantor, head of research for Barclays Capital.

Markets are vulnerable when households and corporations are overconfident, valuations are stretched, and cyclical sectors are booming, and “none of those conditions hold now,” said Kantor during a presentation of the firm’s Global Outlook report released today. Barclays advises investors to maintain a“neutral risk.”

SS says

I dont agree with him.

Look at all the crazy bullish actions and data out there.
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There’s a “chance for a decent rally” in financials in the third quarter, said Barry Knapp, head of Barclays’ U.S. Equity Strategy, who cautioned against stocks leveraged to the U.S. economy and consumer.
“The credit issues are largely behind us,” said Knapp.“The U.S. has done a better job of recapitalizing than Japan and bank lending is up 1 percent so far in the second quarter” after falling in the previous quarter.

“If you can put two decent quarters together that’s a catalyst for a late rally to get to our yearend price target of 1450,” he said. “If I had to have a price target for the end of the third quarter, it would be 1350.”

In fixed income, Barclays’ credit group said investors may want to “put some risk on, especially in the high-yield sector,”said Kantor. “They like financials right now.”

SS says

Let us get back at this post in a years time to see where we are.

Then we can judge this guy.


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