Dear All
I have built a tactical global macro portfolio.
I will be presenting the details as below on a regular basis.
This will deal with equity indices , currency and commodity markets.
The idea is to produce uncorrelated absolute returns over the medium to long term time frame.
This portfolio can also be replicated more effectively using medium to longer term options but for sake of simplicity for the investor , I am going to use basic indices.
This portfolio should be judged on a medium to long term time frame - effectively 3 - 5 years.
In my view - the global markets will see turbulence until 2015/16 and this portfolio will be best placed to weather the storm.
Current portfolio has 8 trades
All trades are equally weighted
Long Gold - Short Silver is based on my view that RISK is being taken off the table.
Short Silver - based on my view that Silver should be heading towards lows on 2008/09
Long US Dollar - Short Developed Market FX - based on my view that USD has begun a multi week multi month up move
Short EUR - PIIGS are insolvent
Short JPY CHF and CAD - based on my TECHNICAL views about these currency markets
Short AUD - based on my view that AUD is a proxy for RISK and we are about to enter RISK OFF in the coming weeks/ months
As of today - portfolio is down 7 basis points.
We will be looking at compounded return of this portfolio over the next 3 - 5 years.
I am to beat every major HF, FoHF portfolio in the next 3 -5 years with this portfolio (that will change as per my global macro views) along with an uncorrelated source of real return.
I have built a tactical global macro portfolio.
I will be presenting the details as below on a regular basis.
This will deal with equity indices , currency and commodity markets.
The idea is to produce uncorrelated absolute returns over the medium to long term time frame.
This portfolio can also be replicated more effectively using medium to longer term options but for sake of simplicity for the investor , I am going to use basic indices.
This portfolio should be judged on a medium to long term time frame - effectively 3 - 5 years.
In my view - the global markets will see turbulence until 2015/16 and this portfolio will be best placed to weather the storm.
Current portfolio has 8 trades
All trades are equally weighted
Long Gold - Short Silver is based on my view that RISK is being taken off the table.
Short Silver - based on my view that Silver should be heading towards lows on 2008/09
Long US Dollar - Short Developed Market FX - based on my view that USD has begun a multi week multi month up move
Short EUR - PIIGS are insolvent
Short JPY CHF and CAD - based on my TECHNICAL views about these currency markets
Short AUD - based on my view that AUD is a proxy for RISK and we are about to enter RISK OFF in the coming weeks/ months
As of today - portfolio is down 7 basis points.
We will be looking at compounded return of this portfolio over the next 3 - 5 years.
I am to beat every major HF, FoHF portfolio in the next 3 -5 years with this portfolio (that will change as per my global macro views) along with an uncorrelated source of real return.
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