Sunday 5 June 2011

My View - Global Real Estate

SS says

I think US real estate has much further to fall.
It would be wise to stay away from this market.

UK
The worst real estate market in the world is UK.
This is one that has not crashed as yet.
I am very bearish UK real estate.
I think it has a very high probability of a crash.
I think we will see a crash before 2015/16 in this market.

Europe ex Germany
I like the German real estate market.
This is the only one market where I dont see a bubble.

Stay away from France, Switz, Denmark etc real estate market,.
They should all crash in sync.

Asia
I like India on a long term basis.
In the short term is looks frothy to me.

Dubai
I like this from a value perspective.
This has crashed and burned.
Dubai RE is cheap.
It may see one more dip - before 2012.
In the next 3 - 5 - 7 years this is a BUY.

Australia
This is one of AVOID.
This is a bubble and is about to crash - big time.
AUD, ASX Index and OZ Real Estate - The trio will crash in sync.
I am bearish Australia.
This should pan out by 2015/16.




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