SS says
In my view - the market is approaching a historic TOP.
I also think that the SPX High of 1540+ish in 2007 will not be exceeded.
I think that we are in the last stages of the relief rally that began in March 2009.
This is not a RECOVERY.
This is a dead cat bounce.
I think 2011 - later half - as I have said before - 2012 and 13 will be devastating.
My recommendation for a medium term investor with a 3- 5 year horizon would be -
I think SPX will break below the lows of 666 before 2015
Greece will DEFAULT - may be Ireland and Portugal as well - we shall see
I think EURO would be below 1.0 before 2015
Australian and UK real estate will crash by more than 50%
AUD will crash and will be below March 09 lows
Oil and Silver will crash to $33 and $8 or below
Gold will also fall in SYNC - I think Gold may be somewhere between $500-$800
I dont see Gold at $2000 for now - It has to go down first
I dont see Silver at $150 as some fools in the market do in the coming months
I dont see Oil at $250 as some fools in the market do in the coming months
I like India, Korea in the next 3 - 5 - 7 years.
But they will dip when global markets fall
I think Health Care is a great sector to be in.
I think Education is a great sector to be in - in Asia but not US.
I think Waste Management is a great sector to be in - in Asia as well in the next 3 - 7 years.
The only real estate market that is holding up in UK Real Estate.
This will CRASH before 2015.
Dont buy property in UK now.
Wait until prices fall in the coming years.
We have seen US , Dubai and Spain real estate crash.
Next in line to dip are India.
China and HK Real Estate will crash too.
UK and Europe is in the worst position except Germany.
I like German real estate.
Aussie and Canadian real estate will crash too.
I think it is already crashing.
India is also slowing in places like Bomaby.
Indian real estate now is more expensive than London - which is bizarre in the short term.
Dubai real estate is a BUY - in the long term from here.
It has already crashed.
I would wait for one more final dip and then think of going LONG.
Prices are really cheap in Dubai now for RE.
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In my view - the market is approaching a historic TOP.
I also think that the SPX High of 1540+ish in 2007 will not be exceeded.
I think that we are in the last stages of the relief rally that began in March 2009.
This is not a RECOVERY.
This is a dead cat bounce.
I think 2011 - later half - as I have said before - 2012 and 13 will be devastating.
My recommendation for a medium term investor with a 3- 5 year horizon would be -
- Get out of equity markets in US, Europe and Japan
- Get out of LONG EURO, AUD , GBP and CAD
- Go LONG USD
- Go LONG Super Short Term US T Bills
- Go LONG safe haven instruments
- Get out of EMG MKTS for now
- Get out of CREDIT
- Get out of DEBT
- Get out of LUXURY items - I think they will fall between 50 and 75% or even more before 2015 and I think we are topping in that sector now
- US and Europe Developed eqty Mkts are close to a TOP
- Stay away from PIIGS
- Stay away from US real estate - Avoid UK real estate , Avoid Aussie and Canadian real estate
- You can stay LONG Indian real estate - but not now - Go LONG after the dip say in 2012 or so
- Stay away from Silver - The time to BUY Silver will be when it is below $8 and I would buy tonnes of Silver then
- Stay away from Oil - Time to buy Oil is when it is below $33 and not now (before 2015)
- Stay in CASH
- Stay DEBT free
- Dont service INTEREST payments - I mean for unnecessary items
- Stay away from Wine and ART
I think SPX will break below the lows of 666 before 2015
Greece will DEFAULT - may be Ireland and Portugal as well - we shall see
I think EURO would be below 1.0 before 2015
Australian and UK real estate will crash by more than 50%
AUD will crash and will be below March 09 lows
Oil and Silver will crash to $33 and $8 or below
Gold will also fall in SYNC - I think Gold may be somewhere between $500-$800
I dont see Gold at $2000 for now - It has to go down first
I dont see Silver at $150 as some fools in the market do in the coming months
I dont see Oil at $250 as some fools in the market do in the coming months
I like India, Korea in the next 3 - 5 - 7 years.
But they will dip when global markets fall
I think Health Care is a great sector to be in.
I think Education is a great sector to be in - in Asia but not US.
I think Waste Management is a great sector to be in - in Asia as well in the next 3 - 7 years.
The only real estate market that is holding up in UK Real Estate.
This will CRASH before 2015.
Dont buy property in UK now.
Wait until prices fall in the coming years.
We have seen US , Dubai and Spain real estate crash.
Next in line to dip are India.
China and HK Real Estate will crash too.
UK and Europe is in the worst position except Germany.
I like German real estate.
Aussie and Canadian real estate will crash too.
I think it is already crashing.
India is also slowing in places like Bomaby.
Indian real estate now is more expensive than London - which is bizarre in the short term.
Dubai real estate is a BUY - in the long term from here.
It has already crashed.
I would wait for one more final dip and then think of going LONG.
Prices are really cheap in Dubai now for RE.
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As I have said before - SPX is most likely to peak near June - Sep this year and the head lower.
I hope I am right on that.
It also coincides with a bottom in USD, a peak in EURO, AUD, CHF, CAD, GBP.
It also coincides with a peak in Gold - I think Silver has peaked at $49.
I think Oil has peaked near $120.
I think COMMODITIES have turned lower as of now and USD will be stronger in the coming 18 months.
Credit and equity will turn last and head lower going into next year.
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