Gary Shilling: These 5 Factors Could Still Derail The Recovery

http://www.businessinsider.com/gary-shilling-these-are-the-five-factors-that-could-derail-the-recovery-2011-5

• Housing Market: Due to high excess inventories, home prices could fall off another 20%, and fall back in line with long-term estimates

• Oil Prices: If uncertainty in the Middle East persists, oil prices will continue to rise, creating a tax on the U.S. consumer, weakening retail sales.

• Japan: Because of the slowdown in the U.S., Japan will no longer run current account surpluses, but rather deficits. That will weaken the domestic buyer of Japanese bonds, force the country to sell to foreign buyers at higher interest rates, and lead toa debt "death spiral." 

• Europe: Restructuring likely in Ireland, Greece, and Portugal, will send region into a recession, reduce demand for U.S. exports, and hit U.S. banks with exposures to the eurozone.

• China: Hard landing likely, with inflation already at 12%, and interest rate hikes failing