http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601010&sid=aYZCCkfd1Acw
Ask Harry Dent about this.
He is the expert on demographics.
Common sense tells me this is not good in the long term for the US.
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Almost 47 percent of women from 25 to 29 had never been married in 2009, almost double the 26 percent reported in 1986, according to a Census Bureau report released today.
The youngest brides were most likely to be Hispanic, with only 36.8 percent from 25 to 29 reporting that they’d never been married. On the other end of the scale, 70.5 percent of black women from 25 to 29 hadn’t been married.
“Getting married is a cost,” said Dena Davey, director of marketing for the Association of Bridal Consultants. “The bride’s father used to pay that cost, but now we’re seeing it split among families, or the couples are paying it themselves.”
Ask Harry Dent about this.
He is the expert on demographics.
Common sense tells me this is not good in the long term for the US.
--------
Almost 47 percent of women from 25 to 29 had never been married in 2009, almost double the 26 percent reported in 1986, according to a Census Bureau report released today.
The youngest brides were most likely to be Hispanic, with only 36.8 percent from 25 to 29 reporting that they’d never been married. On the other end of the scale, 70.5 percent of black women from 25 to 29 hadn’t been married.
“Getting married is a cost,” said Dena Davey, director of marketing for the Association of Bridal Consultants. “The bride’s father used to pay that cost, but now we’re seeing it split among families, or the couples are paying it themselves.”
When I saw this headline, I was surprised a reporter would go so far as to explain why Americans are marrying later (a trend going back at least a century I think). I read the article interested as to what would cause him to conclude that adults "getting choosier about their prospective spouses" explained this phenomena.
ReplyDeleteAfter reading the article, I think he mis-understood this paragraph from the report:
“As marriage rates have decreased and cohabitation has become more common, marriage has become more selective of adults who are better off socioeconomically and have more education”
"Marriage becoming more selective of adults" who are richer and more educated means that statistically speaking, adults who are richer and more educated are more likely to marry. It doesn't mean that adults are becoming more choosy.
Maybe there was some other support for that conclusion that I missed?
My perspective on the news article was as below -
ReplyDeleteAs they delay the time when they get married - they also delay when they have babies - this finally affects the overall demographics - so this causes long term changes in the spending waves - and this is bearish for US in the long term.
A bit like this did happen in Japan some time back.
They have an ageing population - low birthrate - high divorce rate - low immigration - late marriages - or even less marriages - this affect their spending wave - and this is one of the inputs that caused the defaltion since 90s.
Pls refer to Harry Dent - who has done great work on demographics and also look at Robert Prechetr who has shown that social mood dictates financial trends - As of now social mood is turing -ve and hence birth rates will fall - divorce rates will go up - number of babies conceived will fall etc - due to the economy being in the downward phase.