Sunday 3 April 2011

Past, Present and the Future - Part II

Real estate is not always a good thing.
If there are no jobs - how do you expect the tenants to pay your rent.
So buyers jumping to buy at the dip in housing in search for yield should consider the fact that in a prolonged real estate downturn - you just dont buy until the bottom is in place.

Always have a rescue fund - Always have some cash at hand - Cash that has been saved and not that you can withdraw from the ATM machine using your credit card.
Read Warren Buffet's 2010 annual letter - in the middle section - he makes reference to the same concept.

Margin debt was also at a multi year high near 1929.
We are in the same situation as of now.
The recent margin debt number of $310bn is the 3rd highest since 1999.
So people were drowning in debt / leverage near the peak of 2000, 2007 and now.

The future for the common man is - work hard for less money and cut expenses to the bone.

A bank wont be a bank - it will be an owner of worthless real estate.
This is more or less true for the US.

It will be the same for UK and Europe as well - less for Germany although as they seem not to have a real - real estate bubble.

A long Gold / short Silver trade would do well like it did in 2008 and in all previous eqty stress test periods.


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