EURO - It is time to PEAK and then DROP

The chart above is for Bloomberg CTFC CME Euro Fx Net Non Commercial Futures Positions


This is basically showing how the speculators ie  hedge funds are positioned


They are extremely net long the EURO at this point in time


Past data in the chart has shown that this is not the time to go long the EURO
If you see the GREEN oval - hedge funds were almost this long EURO around Sept Oct 2009


They thought the EURO would keep on strengthening but as we all know the USD started its strong move in Nov 2009


The Euro then went to 1.18 by summer of 2010


So the hedge funds were wrong and paid being long the EURO


This is how the crowd works
This is how the herd works




Again around Oct 2010 - the hedge funds were back 
They were long EURO again and this time it was close it its earlier peak


We all know what happened in Nov 2010


QE2 was announced an the USD instead of weakening - strengthened further and hedge funds lost money on that trade too


Humans just never learn from their mistakes


Now again - they are back
And this time with a much more bullish view on the EURO


I am sure that they will be wrong again


It is time to go long USD and not the EURO


The EURO will peak and then fall from here