SS SAYS
(PLS NOTE - THIS CHART IS INVERTED SO UP MEANS DOWN)
SOMETIME IN BETWEEN 2012 - 2016 - WE WILL SEE OIL CRASH AND COLLAPSE FROM 120-150 $ RANGE TO $10-$33 RANGE
THIS 70% DROP IN OIL WILL LEAD TO A DISASTER IN GCC STOCK MARKETS
EXPECT SAUDI STOCK INDEX TO DROP FROM CURRENT 1725 TO 250-500 RANGE
YES - THIS IS A 70 TO 80% CRASH IN THE SAUDI STOCK MARKET
MASSIVE DEFLATION IN THE WEST - IMPLODING EUROPEAN HOUSING MKTS - PIIGS DEFAULT - CRASHING EURO - US MUNI IMPLOSION - CHINA HARD LANDING - CMDTY CRASH WILL LEAD TO A GLOBAL COLLAPSE IN OIL PRICE - WE WILL SEE 2008 HAPPEN AGAIN - BUT THIS TIME IT WILL BE MUCH WORSE
THE SKYSCRAPER CURSE WILL BE IN FULL FORCE CAUSING MASSIVE REAL ESTATE DEFAULTS IN KUWAIT , SAUDI , AND THE REST OF THE GCC
2013/14/15 - WILL SEE THE WORST REAL ESTATE MARKET IN UK , AUSTRALIA , INDIA , CHINA , AND MIDDLE EAST
SAVINGS RATE WILL RISE
UNEMPLOYMENT WILL JUMP
BANKS WILL GO BUST
ONE OR SOME OF THE PIIGS WILL DEFAULT
EURO WILL CRASH AND LOOK VERY VERY DIFFERENT THAN ITS CURRENT FORM
LUXURY INDEX WILL CRASH
ART AND WINE WILL COLLAPSE
THE ONLY PLACE TO HIDE WILL BE IN CASH , SHORT TERM T BILLS , CHF OR SWISS T BILLS
ALL RISKY ASSETS WILL COLLASPSE
QUALITY OF LIFE WILL GET WORSE
TAXES WILL RISE
WE WILL RE-LIVE THE SECOND GREAT DEPRESSION
1929 IS ABOUT TO BE REPEATED AGAIN - BUT THIS TIME IN THE NEXT 5 YEARS IT MAY BE MUCH MORE SERIOUS
MONEY PRINTING WILL NOT WORK - IT NEVER HAS
THERE WILL BE DEFLATION AND DEPRESSION FIRST - NO HYPER INFLATION ON THE SHORT TERM HORIZON AT ALL
FORGET AND IGNORE THE GUYS WHO SAY WE WILL SEE HYPER INFLATION IN USA IN THE NEXT 3 -5 YEARS
THAT IS NOT GOING TO HAPPEN
YOU CANT SOLVE A DEBT PROBLEM WITH MORE DEBT
AUSTERITY IS THE WAY TO GO AND THIS WILL BE DEFLATIONARY
ON THE FIRST SIGN AND HINT OF COMING HYPER INFLATION - THE BOND VIGILANTES WILL DUMP US BONDS AND CAUSE SPIKES IN RATES - AND THIS SPIKE WILL CAUSE MASSIVE DEFAULTS IN HOUSING AND CORPORATE MKTS
SO THIS IS NOT GOING TO BE GOOD
ON THE OTHER HAND - DEBT DELEVERAGING AND DEFLATION WILL CAUSE DEBTS TO BE PAID BACK - USD WILL BE IN DEMAND - AND WILL BE STRONG
ALL MAJOR ECONOMIES NEED TO EXPORT THEIR WAY OUT OF THIS MESS
THEY ALL NEED A WEAKER CURRENCY - ALL AT THE SAME TIME
YOU CANT HAVE WEAKER JPY , WEAKER CHF, WEAKER EURO AND WEAKER GBP , WEAKER AUD - ALL AT THE SAME TIME AND A VERY WEAK USD ( AS EVERYBODY SEES IT AS DEAD)
JPY AT 78 IS REAL BAD FOR TOYOTAS AND SONY'S OF THE WORLD - THEY NEED YEN AT 100 SO USD NEEDS TO BE STRONG FOR THEM TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE
EURO AT 140 OR 150 OR 160 IS BAD FOR GERMANY SELLING MERCS AND BMW'S - SO THEY NEED A WEAK EURO AT 110 OR 120 -SO USD NEEDS TO BE STRONG
GBP AT 2 OR 190 OR 180 IS NOT GOOD FOR UK EXPORTERS AS WELL
SAME GOES FOR AUD AT 110 OR 120 OR 130 - IT NEEDS TO BE AT 85 OR 75
SO ALL THIS LEADS TO A STRONG DOLLAR AND WEAK RISKY BETS LIKE IT WAS IN 2008
THE PLACE TO BE IN THE LONG TERM ARE INDIA AND CHINA
- CHINA - THEY WILL SEE HARD LANDING AND WILL SUFFER BUT WILL COME OUT OF IT - AND WILL RISE
- INDIA - LONG TERM THIS IS ONE OF THE BEST MKTS TO BE IN
- SAME GOES FOR KOREA AND TAIWAN
BUT NOT FOR AUSTRALIA OR JAPAN IN ASIA
EUROPE IS TOAST AND SO IS USA FOR THE NEXT 5 YEARS
Hello,
ReplyDeleteWhat is your take about too big to fail financial institutes from the U.S?
Thanks,
Meir
Hi there your last analysis was back in in JUl 2011 and now we are in Jul 2012 appox 1 year and since Jul 2011 the Saud market is up with double digit %
ReplyDeleteWould you update us on this please.
Thanks in advance.
mmorpg
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