The Great Depression of 2008-2016

The final cycle of the great depression started in 2008.

The mkts crashed in the first phase that ended March 2009.

The corrective bounce started from March 2009 and is about to end soon ie in 2011.

We are getting close to the end of that second phase.

Technically we should be done by June or so.

That should mark the end of the relief rally.

Now upon completion of this relief rally in 2011 (may be 2012 if the markets gets   stretched which I dont think will happen) we are about the see and witness the below.

1. Silver is approaching a major top. It may or may not blow off to the top but the parabolic speculative rise is coming to an end. The 90% bullish sentiment is telling us that same thing. The final target for Silver is to head to $10 or lower.
2. Gold will also move lower as the deflation hits the developed world. It is said that Gold will not crash as it is both a deflation and inflation hedge. This is a MYTH. Gold does well in expansions so contracting global liquidity if not good for Gold. The target for Gold is to head south below $1000.
3. Oil is in the midst of a bubble as well. CTFC data tells us that there is a huge bullish one way crowded trade in oil at the moment. Oil will crash and the target is to head south to touch $33. The same place it was in end 2008-early 2009.
4. US Dollar is the most hated asset. It is now time to go long the DXY. It will rise in value as the comdty, eqty and real estate mkts (US and also UK, Australia, Canada, India, Europe come crashing down). DXY is headed north up to 88 from 75. CTFC data will confirm the super bearish sentiment on USD.
5. Euro to head lower in the coming months/years. Expect 1.18 to be taken out. It has no right to be at 1.42 when the member nations ie PIIGS are bust / insolvent.
6. JPY to head to 85-90 band. It is now at 80. USD will be strong vs JPY.
7. CHF will weaken as USD gains strength and head to 1 from 0.93 as of now.
8. GBP is now at 1.60 and with the UK real estate and FTSE collapse , it is headed to 1.40 as in 2008.
9. AUD has not yet peaked. It will too soon. It may or may not happen now but I think before 2012 , we will see a major peak in AUD. That will mark the end of the Aussie bubble. The real estate collapse with the currency weakness and commodity burst will add to severe downward pressure on Australia. This is a market one should avoid going long either via AUD or AS51 Eqty index or Aussie real estate. They will also crash.
10. SPX is about to peak close to June and the VIX will rise from 16. Finally expect VIX to head back to 40 and then to 80
11. All European eqty mkts will head lower. Only German real estate will stand the test of time , expect UK, Denmark, Switzerland etc real estate markets to finally crash. This will be a long process and patience is warranted.
12. Asian eqty markets will head higher for now but then finally peak in the later half of this year and then fall as well.
13. There is no place to hide except cash or DXY or Short Term US Tsy.
14. Sticking to my previous post, NKY will still head higher to 12000 and then once the global mkts crash , it will head to 6000.
15. The Gulf markets look to be in a different cycle than the WEST. I think they will make a final bottom now and soon. Ex would be Jordan and Egypt.

I am more than convinced that the great depression is back and it is only a matter of time that we start to see its effects.

The demographic trends are not looking good for US, Japan, Europe, Eastern Europe, Russia and China. These countries are aging and this is one of the primary reasons for the synchronized problems in the developed world.

Japan is leading the pack, US to follow along with Europe. China is next and this makes up more than 75% of global growth.

One notable exception is India. They are a young country and are not aging and they look to be one step further away from the trap that the WEST is about to be caught in.

One more note - taxes on the rich will go up in US and Europe. There is no escape.