It seems to me that we are approaching a market top of epic proportions very soon.
I don't have a time line but it should be this year or next.
Please see charts below.
Palladium
Up 436% since the low in 2009
========
Cotton
Up 270% since the low in 2009
==========
Gold
Up 455% since the low in 1999
========
Oil
Up 230% since the low in 2009
=======
Just had Margin Debt data for Feb 2011
The gross number is at 310 billion.
Near the peak of the mkt in 2000, the margin debt number was 278 billion.
The margin debt number in Sept 2007 peaked at 285 billion.
We all know what happened to the mkt after the peak in 2000 and 2007.
Now this number is even above the past two peaks.
It is time to be alert as this data point is acting as a RED FLAG that we are very close to a market top.
==========
The Skyscraper Index is telling us that all wont be rosy in Asia as China , South Korea etc. are on their way to build the tallest structures in the world. The completion dates for these projects is between 2012 and 2014.
So we will be in a severe recession by then.
The SHARD in UK is also set for completion by 2012 which also puts the UK at risk as this will be the tallest structure in UK/ Europe.
We all know how it ended for Dubai, Malaysia , US etc when they attempted the same some time back.
Also please note that in India - we now have the construction of the worlds most expensive home currently going on.
They expect it to be completed by 2012.
Don't be surprised if India is also in the midst of a recession by next year.
==========
The IPO Indicator is telling us that near most major market tops , the largest and the biggest IPOs come out.
We just had the GM IPO last year so if the recession starts now , this will act as a timely indicator.
We remember the VISA IPO near 2007/08 , the KRAFT, AT&T IPO near the peak in 1999/2000.
==============
I will post some more info later on some other indicators that are telling me that we are close to approaching a top.
I don't have a time line but it should be this year or next.
Please see charts below.
Palladium
Up 436% since the low in 2009
========
Cotton
Up 270% since the low in 2009
==========
Gold
Up 455% since the low in 1999
========
Oil
Up 230% since the low in 2009
=======
Just had Margin Debt data for Feb 2011
The gross number is at 310 billion.
Near the peak of the mkt in 2000, the margin debt number was 278 billion.
The margin debt number in Sept 2007 peaked at 285 billion.
We all know what happened to the mkt after the peak in 2000 and 2007.
Now this number is even above the past two peaks.
It is time to be alert as this data point is acting as a RED FLAG that we are very close to a market top.
==========
The Skyscraper Index is telling us that all wont be rosy in Asia as China , South Korea etc. are on their way to build the tallest structures in the world. The completion dates for these projects is between 2012 and 2014.
So we will be in a severe recession by then.
The SHARD in UK is also set for completion by 2012 which also puts the UK at risk as this will be the tallest structure in UK/ Europe.
We all know how it ended for Dubai, Malaysia , US etc when they attempted the same some time back.
Also please note that in India - we now have the construction of the worlds most expensive home currently going on.
They expect it to be completed by 2012.
Don't be surprised if India is also in the midst of a recession by next year.
==========
The IPO Indicator is telling us that near most major market tops , the largest and the biggest IPOs come out.
We just had the GM IPO last year so if the recession starts now , this will act as a timely indicator.
We remember the VISA IPO near 2007/08 , the KRAFT, AT&T IPO near the peak in 1999/2000.
==============
I will post some more info later on some other indicators that are telling me that we are close to approaching a top.
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